The article analyzes the practice of use of monetary policy instruments in Ukraine from the point of view of their efficiency, correspondence to market and attaining the final goals of monetary policy. The author provides an in-depth analysis of the policy of compulsory reserves, interest policy, re-financing of commercial banks, open-market transactions with securities and the policy of support of the national currency.

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The author assesses the scale of dollarization in Ukraine’s economy and capital outflow from this country in the context of unrealized investment possibilities. She has carried out a quantitative assessment of the volume of cash foreign currency in the direct possession of the households. The article proposes measures to prevent further capital outflow from Ukraine, which would favor the formation of internal development resources, and, eventually, higher rates of economic growth.

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The author presents analysis of empirical research on the impact of financial development indicators on GDP. She considers the basic factors determining the peculiarities of those interrelations. The article provides statistical estimations of the interrelation between capitalization and the growth rates of Ukraine’s economy.

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The article analyses possible risks of negative impact on Ukraine's economy from a sharp revaluation of the Hryvnia. With the use of econometric analysis, the author has tested the hypothesis of monetary nature of the inflationary process and presents the results of empirical research on the factors of inflation enhancement and its impact on the financial sector.

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The author provides the methodology and quantitative calculations of the first attempts to estimate Ukraine's capitals carries out in 1924–1925. The article offers quantitative esti-mates of Ukraine's real capital by economic activities and be territories for 2000–2005. There are the results of the calculations of intellectual and financial capitals of Ukraine and variant-based calculations of Ukraine's national capital in 2005

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The author provides the basic theoretical provisions related to and types of productive functions. She considers various research guidelines based on the use of productive func-tions and reviews its modifications

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The author analyzes the peculiarities and problems in the construction of production function (PF) for the transition economies. She justifies the possibility to use the PF appa-ratus to describe the Ukraine;s transition economy, and pre-sents the main steps in the construction of Cobb-Douglas pro-duction function for Ukraine;s economy, i.e. the stages of preliminary analysis, specification and parameterization

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The author assesses Ukraine’s competitiveness through the dynamics of Global Competitiveness Index constructed in accordance with World Economic Forum’s methodology. The article provides a detailed analysis of the dynamics and structure of the index component, which characterizes the development of a country’s financial market

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The author analyzes the dynamics of crediting Ukraine’s economy by the commercial banks and em-phasizes the main problems of the banking system development, which lead to decrease in the amounts of the banks’ credit operations. She also considers the peculiarities of banking crediting un-der the conditions of financial instability

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The authors advance the basic arguments in favor and against the development of a national system of crisis monitoring. They give a detailed presentation of a set of program-and-analytical tools called “The system of monitoring the threats to stable economic development” and define the key problems in selecting the proper indicators to avoid financial instability

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The author shows key tendencies of the development of money as the starting point for changes in the structure and develop-ment of the world financial system. The investigation reveals the main development tendencies of the banking industry during the pre-crisis period and formulates various regularities as to the macro-economic pre-conditions and regulation policies during systemic banking crises. The article considers the main guidelines of anti-crisis measures to stabilize the situation in the bank-ing sphere during the systemic crisis

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The article describes the main factors determining the conditions and prospects of Ukrainian exports on foreign markets. Based on the expected dynamics of Ukrainian and world GDP, changes in the terms of trade in goods and services for the CIS, the authors outline the exogenous conditions that describe the opportunities and constraints shaping for domestic products on the markets of different countries.
For the analysis of price competitiveness of domestic goods, the article justifies the use of dynamic partial indexes of the real effective exchange rate for specific product groups. The authors present the results of calculations of the dynamics of composite index REER for 2000-2012 calculated on the basis of the information regarding the geographical structure of Ukraine’s trade turnover using the consumer market price index as a price indicator. There is a detailed analysis of partial REER calculated for product groups (with two-character
UKTZED) during 2000–2012 taking into account the average 2010–2012 geographic structure of exports (for the ""export basket"") on annual basis (2000 taken as starting point).
Based on the scenario forecasts, the composite index and partial REERs for 97 product groups, the authors show the export price advantages of the domestic products, which can be obtained with the use of exchange-rate and pricing policies

Keywords:real effective exchange rate, price competitiveness

The article deals with international experience and methods of central banks that contributed to the economic development of their countries. The author provides an analysis of principles and results of the current monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine in the context of the opportunities for monetary support of economic recovery. It is shown that the peculiarities of modern monetary policy in Ukraine and in particular the qualitative change in the nature of the hryvnia’s emission led to decreased amount of real money in the economy, slower lending, lower confidence and growing inflation expectations. To analyze the stabilization function of monetary policy, the author estimates potential GDP (trend 1993–2014), obtained with Hodrika – Prescott filter by separating the trend and cyclical components. To assess the impact of the changes in the real money supply on real GDP rate, the author carried out model based calculations, which, based on elasticity coefficient, made it possible to obtain estimates of GDP in 2015. The article justifies the necessity of adjustment of the current policy and identifies various guidelines, which, within the implementation of inflation targeting, would not raise the price dynamics but rather support economic growth.

Keywords: economic growth, monetary policy, money supply, inflation targeting, forecast

The article focuses on the fairly large amount of financial wealth of the countries with different levels of economic development extracted to the offshores, which is a result of the growing trend of increasing the role of offshore in the global economy. Given the presence of a national shortage of developmental resources, author emphasizes the importance of evaluating the amount of the extracted to the offshores financial wealth for the developing countries
The offshore financial capitals are considered in the context of lost or presently unexploited potential for a country's development, which, with favorable conditions and mechanisms created by the national policy, could become a resource for development in the medium and long term.
The article presents expert estimates of the amounts of illicit financial flows from Ukraine and offshore financial wealth of the developing and CIS countries. The author notes that, with the growing trend of capital flight from Ukraine to the offshores, part of it returns to the country in the form of loans and foreign direct investment. Analysis of the dynamics of the structure of direct investments in individual countries shows the role of offshore investment in supporting business development in Ukraine.
Author summarizes the main factors supporting the development of offshore activities worldwide and singles out the factors that encourage the growth of the offshore sector of domestic economy. Given the benefits and costs of offshore companies, the article highlights the thesis that, in modern conditions of globalization, the objective need in offshores will remain, as shown by the experts' predictions of the increase in the global offshore private wealth by 2020.
The article presents author's assessment of the dynamics of the offshore part of capital in Ukraine's banking system in 2012-2016 as a share in its total authorized capital. Calculations made in two versions based on the analysis of the NBU's available official information about the bank owners and data presented on the banks' websites, taking into account the current official list of offshore countries and financial centers by the IMF and OECD. Presented a geographical distribution of the offshore ties of Ukrainian banks.
Author emphasizes the risks and the need to strengthen regulation of the offshore activities, gives the main guidelines of international anti-offshore policies and describes Ukraine's first steps in this field.

Keywords: offshore, offshore economy, illicit financial flows, financial wealth, capital of the banking system, economic development, anti-offshore policy measures, Ukraine

The spread of globalization processes and active involvement of small economies in them lead to the fact that their economic development depends to a large extent on existing tendencies and future trends of the world economy. Ukraine in the global dimension is a small economy: its share in global GDP is insignificant, moreover, it declined from 0.971% in 1992 to 0.294% in 2016; and in 2018-2022, even under the optimistic scenarios of the IMF, the figure will further decrease and will fluctu-ate in the range of 0.289-0.292%. A critical analysis of such a scenario of events evokes the question: how close Ukraine's economy is to the limit of its production potential, and which economic policy (within the framework of global factors) will be efficient in ensuring both recovery and acceleration of economic growth.
The purpose of the article is to present the main global trends in the development of the world economy and the reasons for their formation, which makes it possible not only to identify those which will influence the prospects of the development of the domestic economy, but also justify the need for a well-balanced application of the instruments of economic policy that could support a positive trend of Ukraine's long-term development.
Among the trends with a direct impact on the prospects for the development of global economy, today it is worth highlighting the key one, which has become the reflection of an important structural shift in the dynamics of the world economy. This key trend consists in the fact that, despite the retention of close relationships and dependence of the developing countries on the industrial ones, the output growth rate in the developing countries is higher, while those of the industrial ones are low. Hence the former have become the drivers of global economy.
Decomposition of the growth rate of real GDP for the global economy and the two groups of countries (advanced economies, on the one hand, and developing countries and emerging markets on the other hand) into two components - long-term trend and cyclical fluctuations (using the Hodrick-Prescott filter in Eviews 9.0 package) made it possible to show not only the transition from the stage of divergence to convergence of the two groups of countries, which are different both in terms of development and potential, but also emphasize the emergence of a negative trend in the development of the world economy at the current stage.
Comparison of the long-term development trend of Ukraine with that of the European Union has shown that, in contrast to the long-term stable development of European countries, the dynamics of the Ukrainian trend has pronounced periods of growth and decline similar to those in the former CIS countries. The cyclical recessions in Ukraine are deeper than in the former CIS countries and the EU, which testifies to the serious old problems in this economy.
The analysis of the dynamics of changes in real and potential GDP of Ukraine has confirmed the need, for the assessment of long-term prospects, to consider the changes not only in fundamental and contingency factors, but also those of macroeconomic policy that adjust the performance of the first two.
In order to test the hypothesis of the presence of influence of tax burden on the dynamics of the long-term trend, we constructed linear regression models, which statistically significantly confirmed its correctness, and emphasized the importance of tax policy measures towards an investment friendly business climate (as independent variables were used: effective rate of capital taxation in Ukraine and average effective investment tax rate).
The distributive-lag model for assessing the impact of money supply on the long-term trend of Ukraine's development has shown that potential GDP responds to a 1% increase in money supply in the current year with its own increase by 0.067% on average. Besides, the positive momentum of this money supply will be noticeable over next 4 years. In general, the annual effect of a money increase is even higher and is on average 0.258%, as there are cumulative effects of previous periods.
The constructed VAR model made it possible to confirm the hypothesis of the dependence of Ukraine's GDP gap on cyclical changes in the dynamics of the world economy, market conditions and prices on global markets, terms of trade in goods and services for CIS countries, and empirically proved the efficiency of domestic monetary policy.
Among the factors that determined the global prospects in the past decade and still affect the de-velopment of the world and small economies, we highlight the following: 1) decreased trend of labor productivity; 2) aging population; 3) political uncertainty; 4) low interest rates.
Among the global trends of the next decade, which will allow a better understanding of the intrinsic driving forces in future development of the world economy, we would like to place emphasis on the key ones, which were mentioned by experts in 2017 at the World Economic Forum: rising income and wealth disparity, changing climate, increasing polarization of societies, rising cyber dependency, ageing population.
The inclusion of Ukraine in the system of global interconnections means the need for a permanent response to changes in the development of global economy through reforms of this country's economy based on national interests, and proper assessment of internal mechanisms and institutional conditions, which would make Ukraine's economy more resistant to possible threats, revive the existing potential and provide positive economic growth for a stable development already in the medium term.

Keywords: rate of economic growth, long-term development trend, cyclical component, potential GDP, gap GDP, economic policy, econometric model

The Ukrainian economy has been suffering from financial instability for years, which manifests itself in the chronic devaluation of the hryvnia, regular financial, budgetary, debt and banking crises, cyclical inflation surges, "excommunication" of the public and private sectors from international financial markets, national dependence on external official loans, creditors and conditions for receiving their credits. Each further financial aggravation in Ukraine is accompanied by a deep economic crisis, an increase in unemployment, social tension and the spread of public disbelief. After all, such a picture has been observed in the country for 20 years in a row.
According to a common glance that seems particularly obvious during each new explosion of financial /budget deficits, the root cause of all these problems is excessive state consumption, which provokes unproductive costs in all sectors of the economy, increasing its internal instability and vulnerability. In such circumstances, strict budgetary constraints are considered as the best safeguard for financial and economic stability.
The article offers a different view on the causes of financial instability in Ukraine. In particular, as its key factor, structural and manufacturing imperfection is considered, which causes the country's financial dependence on fluctuations of the world conjunction on the raw materials it produces and exports. This approach is consistent not only with the logic of "intoxication" of the domestic economy during the last global financial crisis, but also with the results of relevant studies conducted after it has been overcome.
Underlying circumstances of the financial dynamics of Ukraine is the global liquidity supply, the volume of which directly depends on the nature of the monetary policy applied by the world's leading central banks. In particular, its easing is accompanied by an increase in demand in world markets, including those of raw materials, which stimulates economic growth of Ukraine with simultaneous increase of its financial capabilities. Conversely, the introduction of a tighter monetary policy oppresses global demand, commodity prices and, consequently, the productive and financial prospects of the national economy.
The analysis of empirical data confirms this hypothesis. In particular, the study concludes that the impact on the real GDP of Ukraine of world commodity prices and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro is, in certain circumstances, more significant than inflation in Ukraine (PPI) and the exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar. This allows to interpret the external monetary conditions as a significant factor for the economic and financial stability of Ukraine. It is so significant that, under certain conditions, its effectiveness succeeds that of the monetary and exchange rate policy of the NBU itself.

Keywords: financial instability, economic dynamics, economic structure, global monetary policy, US dollar to euro exchange rate, VAR model

Domestic metallurgical industry is an integral part of the world industry, and its development takes place in the context of global trends, such as constant growth of metallurgical production with simultaneous excess of smelting, increasing concentration of production, and increasing consumption and export of metal products in TOP-15 leading smelting countries. The main consequence of such trends is a significant intensification of competition on the global steel market.
Despite the fact, that Ukraine’s metallurgical industry is an important participant in the global market of ferrous metals and raw materials for their production and has certain advantages in their production and export, like the whole Ukraine’s economy, is open and small in macroeconomic terms. This gives grounds to refer Ukraine’s metallurgical industry of to the category of "small open industry", which is characterized by export orientation, a small share of output in global output, exports, imports, and domestic consumption and, most importantly – by the lack of decisive influence on world prices.
Since Ukraine’s metallurgical industry is small and open, and the vast majority of its products are shipped to world markets, it was suggested that the dynamics of metallurgical output is directly influenced by external factors such as world steel prices, the hryvnia exchange rate and the price for natural gas. The obtained results confirmed the hypothesis that Ukraine’s metallurgical industry throughout the entire study period was completely dependent on the action of external factors. In particular, the favorable price situation on the global market of metal products ensured a high dynamics of metallurgical output. At the same time, devaluation of Ukrainian national currency in different periods had different effects. The price for natural gas restrained the metallurgical output throughout the entire study period.

Keywords:Ukraine’s metallurgical industry, small open industry, external factors, world steel price, hryvnia exchange rate, price for natural gas, econometric model