Articles by : Bereslavska O. № 3/2006
Economy and the formation of the new system of economic management
BERESLAVSKA O. 1, ZYMOVETS Vladyslav Victorovych2, SHELUDʹKO Nataliya 3
1National University of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Dollarization of the credit market in Ukraine:
reasons and consequences
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2006; 3:117-130 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The authors analyze the macro-economic aspects of dollarization, special features of the structure of credit market in Ukraine, and efficiency of the use of credit po-tential of the banking system under the conditions of high dollarization. They also consider the structure of credit market in Ukraine by economic activities, credit objects and institutional sectors. The article provides a quantitative assessment of the under-use of the credit potential in this country’s banking system. The authors propose concrete measures of state financial policy aimed at lowering the level of dollarization on Ukraine’s credit market
Keywords:
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 117 - 130) | Download | Downloads :710 |
REFERENCES ▼
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№ 1/2011
Economy under the conditions of modern transformations
BERESLAVSKA O. 1
1National University of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
The role of the national bank of Ukraine in increasing the efficiency of monetary policy
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2011; 1:48-58 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The question of formal and informal independence of the central bank is reviewed in the article. The degree of independence of the National bank of Ukraine in the formulation and realization of mone-tary policy is analysed. The measures to strengthen NBU’s independence are offered
Keywords:
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 48 - 58) | Download | Downloads :588 |
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№ 4/2015
Economy under the conditions of modern transformations
BERESLAVSKA O. 1
1National University of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
Devaluation shocks and their consequences for Ukraine's economy
ABSTRACT ▼
The article investigates the impact of devaluation shocks on Ukraine's economy. The author argues that the mechanism of exchange rate effect is mixed, with positive and negative effects of exchange rate fluctuations affecting the competitiveness of the internal and external sectors in different directions.
The author considers three waves of devaluation of the hryvnia (1998-1999, 2008-2009, and 2014-2015) and analyzed their effects. It is shown that hryvnia devaluation in 1998-1999 had the largest effect, which was initially manifested in the growth of exports in 2000, being its peak observed in 2001-2004. The share of imports in the trade balance did not significantly decrease, because Ukraine had a high degree of energy dependence and needed a lot of components for domestic production. However the high prices on international commodity markets contributed to the formation of the raw-material character of Ukraine's exports.
The second wave of devaluation (2008-2009) caused by the global financial crisis did not have a large positive impact on Ukraine's trade balance, as the international markets saw a decline in global demand for goods and services. The depreciation of the hryvnia had a negative impact on domestic output, because the total negative effect of currency devaluation considerably affected the sectors, which were oriented to the domestic market and had a significant share of imported raw materials and energy in their cost structure.
The third wave of hryvnia devaluation (2014-2015) to some extent contributed to the reduction of the negative trade balance, but the full effect of the hryvnia depreciation is difficult to assess because the balance indicators were calculated less the lost territories.
The raw material orientation of Ukrainian exports contributed to a hypertrophy of the domestic economy and the emergence of "Dutch disease", which showed itself in the sector of semi-finished goods. As a result, there took place a substitution of more complex items with more simple ones having lower added value.
Along with the impact of devaluation shocks on Ukraine's trade balance, the author examines the relationship between devaluation of the hryvnia, inflation and living standards. It is shown that, between inflation and devaluation, there is a close relationship, which is explained by the technological structure of Ukraine's import dependent economy. It is concluded that high inflation and devaluation of the hryvnia make no contribution to the stability of money circulation in Ukraine and lead to lower living standards.
The author recommends diversifying this country's export structure towards a significant increase in the share of high tech products and services.
Keywords:devaluation of currency, depreciation of the hryvnia, strengthening the hryvnia exchange rate, account of current operations, export of commodities, import of commodities, currency backlogs
JEL: E310, E400, F310, F320
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 29 - 42) | Download | Downloads :805 |
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