Articles by : Shvetsʹ Serhiy Mykhailovych№ 2/2012
Economy under the conditions of modern transformations
SHVETSʹ Serhiy Mykhailovych1
1State Institution «Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine»
Assessment of the impact of gross budget expenditures on Ukraine’s rates of economic growth
| Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2012; 2:35-46 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article presents a chronological retrospective of the public sector in connection with the overall economic development on the example of several countries. The author reveals the reason of the aggravation of the institutional structure misbalance, in particular, the decrease of the real sector’s share in GDP as a result of the negative impact of the government spending in Ukraine in 2005 – 2011. He analyzes the impact of the total value of government spending on the GDP dynamics in Ukraine (by means of econometric and parametric modeling), and determines the critical margin of the government spending (including net credits) beyond which the economic grows stops
Keywords:economic policy, government spending, institutional structure
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 35 - 46) | Download | Downloads :469 |
REFERENCES ▼
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№ 3/2020
DiscussionsSHVETSʹ Serhiy Mykhailovych1
1State Institution «Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine»
Modeling the impact of public debt on economic growth in Ukraine
ABSTRACT ▼
The study considers modeling approaches to determine the relationship between the level of public debt and economic growth. Empirical evidence for the positive, neutral, and negative correlation between the indicators arrive in a nonlinear function in the form of inverted U-curve, whose theoretical argumentation is associated with the implementation of the golden rule of public finance.
To verify the empirical evidence on the example of Ukraine’s economy, the author provides a scenario assessment based on the constructed econometric model of fiscal-monetary interaction. The results of modeling confirm the existence of a relationship that corresponds to a second-order polynomial trend. The maximum level of public debt, above which the GDP rate declines, is 63.8%, and the critical level of public debt, at which the rate of economic growth changes to negative, is 87.4%. As the development of Ukraine’s economy is approaching the upper limit of the determined functional entry, to accelerate growth, it is necessary to focus the limited resource of public debt to finance large-scale infrastructure projects with a high capital return.
Keywords:growth, debt threshold, fiscal-monetary interaction, scenario modeling, econometric macro model
JEL: O41, H63, E63, C32
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 146 - 156) | Download | Downloads :456 |
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