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№ 2/2012
KAPUSTIAN V. 1, CHEPELIEV M. 2
1National technical university of Ukraine “Kyiv polytechnic institute”
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Rational strategies of agents' behavior in the model of nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2012; 2:138-152 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The authors consider a macroeconomic model described by a system of nonlinear differential equa-tions that demonstrates a variety of behavioral modes, such as: collapse (occurs when level of capital or effective demand reduces to zero), stationary points, limit cycles, and chaotic attractors. The ana-lyzed model has an endogenous source of perturbations, i.e. fluctuations in the level of capital, de-mand and profitability rate are not caused by external disturbances but arise due to economic mechanisms that underlie the model.
The article identifies the equilibrium states that exist in the analyzed system under different exoge-nous parameters' values. Each identified stationary point is characterized by a certain level of the national income. The control procedure allowing the transfer of the economy from one equilibrium state to another with a simultaneous growth of national income is presented.
It was found that, for the successful implementation of such a transition, it is necessary not only to change the level of demand and investments, but also influence the variables (tax rate) under which the parties (entrepreneurs and government) support or do not support each other.
Control costs calculated for the capital structure estimates based on the financial statements of the Ukrainian enterprises have increased comparing to the theoretical values. Reduction of the total management costs can be achieved by an increase of the share of variable capital in the productive capital. In this case, less investment is needed to transfer the economy to a state with higher national income, although the government expenditures would slightly increase in the process
Keywords:macroeconomic model, non-linearity, management, equilibrium state
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 138 - 152) | Download | Downloads :605 |
REFERENCES ▼
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№ 1/2014
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Simulation and evaluation of the economic impact of the change of the tariff policy on Ukrainian electricity market
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 1:121-138 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Among all types of economic activities in Ukraine, power industry is the only one utilizing the mechanism of cross subsidization. Electricity tariffs for the residential consumers are set far beyond the estimated retail level, while industrial consumers have to pay higher prices in order to compensate those costs. In 2012, electricity consumption subsidies exceeded 31 billion UAH, which is over 8, 7% of the central government budget and 2, 3% of Ukraine\'s GDP. In this study, a static computable general equilibrium model is applied to investigate distributional and poverty-related effects of the price reform in the electricity sector of Ukraine, considering the scenarios of 30%, 50% and 100% subsidies elimination. In addition, different choices of compensating mechanisms for various households\' groups are studied, such as direct transfers from the central government budget, partial preservation of cross-subsidization and compensation through increase of taxes on production and imports. The results indicate that essential positive effects from the elimination of subsidies (lower production costs, output gain and revival of investment processes) mostly take place in the industrial activities. Moreover, the highest growth rates are observed for those industries that are not only active electricity consumers, but also produce energy intensive goods and services. Regardless of the nature of the implemented compensation mechanisms, the decrease in cross-subsidization leads to investments growth: for some scenarios, by up to 4.5 billion UAH. At the same time, residential consumers suffer from the regressive effects: poor households lose relatively more than the rich ones. In his context, the indemnity options analyzed in this study prove to be efficient social dampers.
Keywords:electricity subsidies, reforming, socio-economic consequences, compensating mechanisms, computable general equilibrium model
JEL: D58, Q43, Q48
Article in English (pp. 121 - 138) | Download | Downloads :566 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 121 - 138) | Download | Downloads :611 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. World Energy Outlook Insights, Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right (1999). International Energy Agency. Retrieved from citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.168.1604&rep=rep1& type=pdf [in English].
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6. Ogarenko, I. (2013). Eliminating Indirect Energy Subsidies in Ukraine: Estimation of Environmental and Socioeconomic Effects Using Input–Output Modeling. Kyiv: Hubacek. Retrieved from www.journalofeconomicstructures.com/content/pdf/2193-2409-2-7.pdf [in English].
7. Cross-subsidizing consumers in power (29.10.2010). The national electricity regulatory Commission of Ukraine. Retrieved from www2.nerc.gov.ua/control/uk/archive/ docview?typeId=81191 [in English].
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18. Okagawa A., Ban, K. (2008). Estimation of substitution elasticities for CGE models. Discussion Paper, 08-16. Retrieved from www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/global/dp/0816.pdf [in English].
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№ 2/2015
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Econometric estimation of capital-labor substitution elasticities for Ukrainian CGE model
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2015; 2:33-46 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2015.02.033 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The paper presents econometric estimation of the capital-labor substitution elasticities for 10 economic activities based on the 2003-2009 data. Elasticities are estimated in the context of computable general equilibrium methodology, particularly, based on the constant elasticity of substitution production functions and cost minimization assumptions.
Choice of methods and approaches to elasticities estimation is based on the literature review. Thus paper considers issues of minimum statistical data amount requirements needed to obtain reliable estimates, choice of functional forms to be used for approximation and specification of economic indicators to represent variables of production functions.
According to the received estimates, values of Ukrainian capital-labor substitution elasticities are rather low (0.13-0.82). At the same time, service industries are characterized by lower elasticity values, compared to the real sector of Ukrainian economy, which can be explained by the fact that services have higher intensity of labor employment.
Despite the availability of relatively small amount of historical data and some methodological aspects, obtained estimates call into question the appropriateness of the utilization of certain production functions for modelling the investigated processes. In particular, this includes the case of Cobb-Douglas production functions that have unitary elasticity of substitution.
In general, given the characteristics of CGE modelling approach, the obtained elasticity’s point estimates should be used as initial values of exogenous parameters, which should be reconsidered and changed during the sensitivity analysis and verification of results reliability.
Keywords: substitution elasticities, labor, capital, econometric estimation, computable general equilibrium model, Ukraine
JEL: E23, C50, C68
Article in English (pp. 33 - 46) | Download | Downloads :907 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 33 - 46) | Download | Downloads :670 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Dissou, Y., Karnizova, L., Sun, Q. (2012). Industry-level Econometric Estimates of Energy-capital-labour Substitution with a Nested CES Production Function. University of Ottawa, Working Paper, 1214E. Retrieved from sciencessociales.uottawa.ca/sites/default/files/public/eco/1214e.pdf
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4. Koesler, S., Schymura, M. (2012). Substitution Elasticities in a CES Production Framework. An Empirical Analysis on the Basis of Non-Linear Least Squares Estimations. ZEW – Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper, 12-007. Retrieved from papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2014655
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7. Eromenko, I. (2010). Accession to the WTO: Part II – Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: The Case of Ukraine. Ventus Publishing ApS. Retrieved from library.ku.ac.ke/wp-content/plugins/download-monitor/download.php?id=135
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№ 2/2018
TRYPOLSKA Galyna Serhiivna1, DIACHUK Oleksandr Anatoliiovych2, PODOLETS Roman 3, CHEPELIEV M. 4
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
4Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Biogas projects in Ukraine: prospects, consequences and regulatory policy
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 2:111-134 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.02.111 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The paper focuses on the potential of biogas use in Ukraine. Regulatory policy options for biogas projects were considered, and economic assessment and assessment of biogas projects' environmental impact were made. The results show that the implementation of biogas projects in Ukraine leads to positive macroeconomic effects beginning in 2018-2019. In 2025-2029, additional GDP growth could reach 0.3%. Despite the fact that domestic consumers do not directly participate in investment processes, in the medium and long-run, all groups of households will have positive impact on the level of real income. Wide-scale implementation of biogas projects in Ukraine would lead to moderate structural changes, mainly causing a slowdown in coal output and use, natural gas mining, and steam and hot water supply. The greatest slowdown would be observed in case of coal whose demand is reduced due to the replacement by solid and gaseous biofuels. The use of biogas instead of burning fossil fuels would save 11.462-19.066 million tons of CO2eq.
In order for biogas projects to become available for medium-sized businesses in Ukraine, governmental internal and external loan guarantees should be introduced; lower interest rates on loans through the cooperation of Ukrainian banks with international and domestic financial institutions should be implemented. The cost of capital needs to be reduced; dissemination of information on the benefits of biogas projects, the priority connection to the grid for electricity producers from biogas, the modernization of electricity grids and infrastructure are needed. And in the long term, compulsory use of biogas should be introduced for agro-industrial companies whose activities are related to the formation of wastes.
Keywords: biogas, CO2 emissions, modelling, regulatory policy
JEL: Q 280, Q 420, Q 470, Q 480
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 111 - 134) | Download | Downloads :1028 |
REFERENCES ▼
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