Developing forecast and program documents on encouraging sectoral development requires assessment of the influence of the corresponding measures on adjacent economic sectors. The article proposes a model for the analysis of multiplicative effects of encouraging the sectoral development, which emerge due to the inter-sectoral ties. The model is based on Leontief’s inter-sectoral balance method, structural relationships of the technological structure of outputs and other proportions of input-output tables. As a result of the author’s model based calcu-lations, the influence of the development of various sectors on the macroeconomic dynamics has been assessed (with regard of the international ties).
Growth in the economic sectors forms multiplying effects by affecting the macroeconomic dynamics through encouraging the domestic demand for the produce of adjacent sectors and private and public consumption. The positive influence on the dynamics of economic growth is formed in case of the satisfaction of intermediate and final demand at the expense of domestic production, and the negative one - at the expense of imports. The ex-pense satisfied at the expense of domestic production creates new waves of demand for the produce of interme-diate and final consumption by supporting business activities in the economic system during a long time interval. The cumulative effect of multiplication, which consists of direct, inter-sectoral and induced effects depends on the technological structure of output and consumption structure of the national economy, and allows to take account of the flows of goods and services consumption, as well as inter-sectoral and investment flows in the course of the influence of exogenous fluctuations on the sectoral development.
The assessment of the effects of increased value added in the economy with regard of direct and inter-sectoral influence is considered on the example of agriculture, metallurgy, machine building and construction. Calculations suggests that the greatest positive effect for economic growth in Ukraine is associated with encouraging the agricul-ture, which is followed by the lowest, among the analyzed sectors, increase in imports. With the insignificant direct influence of the metallurgy, the GDP increase is affected by the powerful inter-sectoral ties of the mining and metal-lurgy sector. The main risk of encouraging the growth of metallurgy input is the growth of imports caused by the large share of the primary resources imports in the structure of the sector’s indirect consumption. Creation of addi-tional demand for the produce of machine building is followed by strong inter-sectoral effects; however, that growth potential is not fully realized due to the large share of imports in the sector’s intermediate consumption. Potential of the action of inter-sectoral ties in the construction should be more efficiently realized at the expense of import substi-tution, because, with the sector’s existing technological structure, the GDP losses incurred at the expense of the imports of intermediate use produce by the construction sector partly eat out the positive effects

Keywords:inter-sectoral effects, intermediate consumption, potential of import substitution, encouraging business activities

The authors develop a methodology for the measurement of a country's technological potential for structural transformations on the basis of the product space concept. The proposed еconomic-and-mathematical model enables the researcher to measure a country's technological capability to compete on the markets of medium- and high-technology products. Cross-country indicators of technological potential for structural transformations and technological capabilities for production of medium- and high-technology products are calculated on the basis of the proposed model. Technological capabilities for agricultural machinery in Ukraine are analyzed as an example.
The measurement of a country's technological potential for structural transformations is based on the analysis of development level of its technological factors. The proposed indicator enables the researcher to measure a country's technological capabilities to develop medium- and high-technology industries as well as to assess the possibilities of the introduction of new industries to affect a country’s technological space. This indicator makes it possible to compare the development level of technological factors for a particular country with that needed for a sustainable presence at the medium- and high-technology goods market. Among others, such factors include physical capital, appropriate infrastructure and labor force with the necessary knowledge and skills.
According to the product space concept, the probability for a country to develop the manufacture of a new product depends on the distance from this product to those already successfully exported by the country. The main characteristics of this space are proximities and densities of goods, which are defined accordingly to their revealed comparative advantages.
The technological capability to manufacture particular medium- or high-technology product is defined on the basis of comparison of its density to the weighted mean densities for the countries that are leading producers of this good at the world market. Using the product space characteristics and the technological capability indicators, the authors define the technology potential for structural change as the weighted mean product of the medium- and high-technology goods densities and the technological capabilities of countries for every good. The weights in this model are defined on the basis of the structure of the market of medium- and high-technology goods.
The proposed methodology enables policy-makers to forecast the effects of economic policy measures creating incentives for the development of certain sectors and industries. It can be used as a tool for simulation of a possible increase in technological capability caused by the growth of particular industries or for the evaluation of risks resulting from slowing up.
The proposed model is universal and can be used for any classification of goods. Since input data are freely available for most countries, the model can be used for comparative cross-country analysis and may be extended for the analysis of international and regional markets. The database obtained as a result of the authors’ calculations allows to analyze technological capabilities of countries for 1031 products since 1996 and can be used as a scenario analysis tool in industrial policy making.

Keywords:product space, economy’s technological capability, foreign trade, technological potential, structural transformation

Input-output models are a powerful instrument of scenario based analysis of economic policy measures. However, in their classical structure, they do not allow to take into account the processes of the funding of such measures. Most of such measures in transition economies are related to the attraction of external financial resources, which is the reason why, in their planning, it is necessary to understand the dynamics of both the GDP components and the savings-investments balance. In order to expand analytical capacities, the classical input-output models should be enlarged by adding equations reflecting the flows of savings, investments and borrowings.The proposed approach allows to constructs an input-output model of the development of the domestic economy based on the well known system of the equations of input-output models to calculate the processes of the formation of national savings, attraction of external financial resources with their transformation into investments and the impact of those processes on the formation of domestic demand. Based on such a model, one can make a quantitative assessment of macroeconomic effects of the economic policy of encouraging the investment demand in a country, which is very urgent under the modern conditions of the search for ways of the expansion of the domestic market in Ukraine. Thanks to the reconciliation of the indicators of saving-investment balance with the relationships of the classical input-output model, they may be built in into the existing input-output models in order to expand their analytical possibilities. The developed model is based on the main relationships of the national accounts and the structure of investment flows systemized in the form of a matrix. The matrix of investment flows is built based on the indicators of capital accounts and statistics of capital investments. All input data for the model are available in the official statistics of Ukraine and OECD countries, which makes it possible to compare the structures of different economies in order to analyze the practice of use and efficiency of certain economic policy measures.The developed methodology has been tested for the task of analysis of the efficiency of use of the instruments encouraging business activities in the economy through increasing capital investments of the public sector. Calculations have been made for most European countries, which makes it possible to compare the structural peculiarities of different economies shaping the processes of the multiplication investment funds. Based on the obtained results, it is established that the state expenditures in Ukraine allow to encourage economic activities; however, the obtained GDP increase is lower than the volumes of invested funds. And the results of the use of such instruments have a postponed effect, although, as compared with other countries, that effect is quite powerful due to the well established intersectoral ties.

Keywords:input-output model, inter-industry balance, matrix of investment flows, investment-savings balance, economic policy analysis

The paper proposes a methodology of social accounting matrix construction on the basis of available data in the system national accounts of Ukraine. It is consistent with the main principles of such matrix organization concerning the balance, content and structure of accounts, which enables its use in classical problem statements with general equilibrium models. The methodology provides the necessary disaggregation level of matrix blocks for modeling the links between production processes, use of resources and financial flows, which gives the possibility to take into account the process of transformation of savings into capital assets. The proposed methodology is universal and may be used in case of changing the classifiers of economic activities, in particular, during the transition to CEA 2010. Formal presentation of the matrix elements simplifies the automation of the process of matrix construction, which, with the appearance of new statistical data, allows quick renewal of the matrix. Its representation in the form of a sum of matrix with data of individual accounts allows easy operation with them during further modeling with standard packages like MathLab, R or GAMS. The experimental calculation of the matrix of social accounts for Ukraine was done for 2011. The estimates demonstrate that the use of the above mentioned methodology ensures a proper balance of the matrix account and does not require additional balancing procedures. That ensures the absence of discrepancies between the matrix data and the actual indicators of the national accounts.

Keywords:social accounting matrix, national accounts, input-output tables