HOME PAGE | |
№ 1/2006
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Energy modeling: foreign experience and guidelines for prospective research in Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2006; 1:126-140 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Scientific justification of energy policy priorities is impossible without using corresponding analytical instruments, i.e. mathematical models. Exactness of the estimates depends, among other factors, on the correct choice of methodological approach to the research objectives and available information about the object of modeling. Analyzing the international experience of developing and use of applied systems of energy systems, the author formulates conclusions as regards practical advisability of the development of a model of Ukraine's energy system and acceptable methodological and organizational approach for the completion of the above mentioned task.
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 126 - 140) | Download | Downloads :768 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 2001–2002, Energy statistics of OECD Countries, IEA, Paris, OECD, 2004, R. 328.
3. Bajkov N, Aleksandrova I. Proizvodstvo i potreblenie toplivno-energeticheskikh resursov v ХХ v. , Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2001, № 9, S. 27–33.
4. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2004,www.bp.com statisticalreview2004
5. Ancillary benefits and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation, Proceedings of an IPCC Workshop, Washington D.C. 27-29 March 2000 , Paris, OECD, 2000, R. 592.
6. Final report on the Green Paper "Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply", Brussels, 26.6.2002. COM(2002) 321 final.
7. Nikacenovic N, Grubler A, Ishitani H, Johansson T, Marland G, Moreira J.R, Rogner H.H., Energy primer, RR-97-1 January 1997, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 1997.
8. Kydes A.S, Shaw S.H, McDonald D.F. Beyond the horizon, Recent directions in longterm energy modeling, Energy, 1995, #20(2).
9. Grauer M, Messner S, Strubegger M. An integrated programming package for multiple-criteria decision analysis, in M. Grauer, M. Thompson, A.P. Wierzbicki. Plural Rationality and Interactive Decision Processes, Vol. 248 of Lectures in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, 1985.
10. Krasovskyi N.N. Upravlenye dynamycheskoy systemoy, Zadacha o mynymume garantyrovannogo rezultata, M., Nauka, 1985.
11. Joseffson A, Johnsson J, Wene C.O. Community based regional energy-environ-mental planning, WP-78, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italy, 1994.
12. Ybema J.R, Lako P, Gielen D.J, Oosterheert R.J, Kram T. Prospects for energy technology in the Netherlands, Netherlands Energy Research Foundation, ECN-C-95-002, Petten, Netherlands, 1995.
13. Smertin A.A. Linejnoe programmirovanie v raschetakh toplivnogo balansa, M., Izd-vo ekonom. literatury, 1963, S. 121.
14. Vikko N, Lautala P. Short-term electric power production scheduling using simulated annealing algorithm, Proceedings of the IASTED International Symposium, ACTA Press, Anaheim, CA, USA, 1990.
15. Williams H.P. Model building in mathematical programming, JohnWiley&Sons Ltd, Chichester, UK, 1991.
16. Shapot D.V, Lukackij A.M. Metody resheniya zadach polilinejnogo programmirovaniya, Zhurn. vych. matematiki i mat. fiziki, 2001, T. 41, № 5.
17. Bhatja R, Rogner H.H, Khan A.M. Furlan G. Econometric methods for energy planning and policy, Economics, modeling, planning and management of energy, World Scientific Publishing Co, Singapore, 1990.
18. The National Strategy of Ukraine for Joint Implementation and Emissions Trading., Kiev, 2003, http,//lnweb18.worldbank.org/ESSD/envext.nsf/46ByDocName/Ukrain
19. Imitacionnoe modelirovanie razvitiya sistem energetiki , D.A.Arzamascev, V.R.Elokhin, L.D.Krivoruckij i dr.; Otv. red. Arzamascev D.A, Irkutsk, SEI, 1988, 196 s.
20. Vajk L. E, Rabkin G.B, Yaanimyagi K.E. Soglasovannaya optimizaciya toplivno-energeticheskikh balansov ekonomicheskikh rajonov, teoriya i metody, Tallin, AN ESSR, 1982, 223 s.
21. Kulik M.N. Metody sistemnogo analiza v energeticheskikh issledovaniyakh, K., Nauk. dumka, 1987, 198 s.
22. Kontseptualni polozhennia energetychnoi strategii Ukrainy na period do 2030 roku ta podalshu perspektyvu,http,//mpe.energy.gov.ua/minenergo/document/10000111704/звіт.do
23. Olev Liik, Mart Landsberg, Markko-Raul Esop. Analysis of Estonian power system development using MARKAL model, Proceedings of IEA ETSAP Workshop, Torino, 28–31 October, 2002.
24. Gary A. Goldstein, Lorna A. Greening, Janis Rekis. Assessing the Latvia Energy Sector in the Context of Climate Change Economics, Proceedings of World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund Workshop, Riga, 24-27 January 2000.
25. Marcin Jaskolski. Analiza aplikacji modelu MARKAL iopis modelu TIMES na podstawie literatury. Internal Report, Department of Electrical Power Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, July 2002.
26. The Czech Republic’s Second Communication on the National Process to Compy with the Commitments under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Minestry of the environment of the Czech Republic, Typesetting, EnviTypo, Prague, May 1997.
№ 2/2010
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Market factors of energy supply
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2010; 2:129-144 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The author is analyzing the nature and dependence of the current dynamics of energy supply, as well as basic conditions for its formation and possible directions of its development. In this scope, he shows imperfection of the approach for combination of market factors and state regulation that determine the character of coal products and natural gas supply
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 129 - 144) | Download | Downloads :577 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Eksportimport okremykh vydiv tovariv za krainamy svitu, Ofitsiynyi sayt Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy, <www.ukrstat.gov.ua/>.
3. Rezultaty roboty vugilnoi galuzi, Informatsiynoanalitychnyi portal "Energobiznes", <www.eb.com.ua>.
4. Postanova Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrainy "Pro khid strukturnoi perebudovy vugilniy promyslovosti" vid 28.03.1997 r. № 280, <www.zakon.rada.gov.ua/>.
5. Postanova Verkhovnoi Rady Ukrainy "Pro vnesennia zminy do Zakonu Ukrainy "Pro vidnovlennia platospromozhnosti borzhnyka abo vyznannia yogo bankrutom" vid 18.01.2005 r. № 2354, <www.bank.gov.ua/>.
6. Postanova Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrainy "Pro Tymchasovyi poriadok ustanovlennia rozdribnykh tsin na pryrodnyi gaz dlia potreb naselennia" vid 8.12.2006 r. № 1697, <www.bank.gov.ua/>.
7. Postanova Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrainy "Pro Poriadok zabezpechennia spozhyvachiv pryrodnym gazom" vid 27.12.2001 r. № 1729 <www.bank.gov.ua/>.
№ 1/2014
PODOLETS Roman 1, DIACHUK Oleksandr Anatoliiovych2, YUKHYMETS Roman Serhiiovych3
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The peculiarities of price formation in the international trade in natural gas
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 1:53-66 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article investigates the character and conditionality of the existing practice of price formation in the international trade in natural gas. In particular, it has been established that one of important consequences of the consecutive realization of the policy of the liberalization of natural gas markets in the European countries, became decoupling between the price and principles of gas price formation. That caused a transition from the previously predominant pricing formula in the international contracts ("netbackprice") to the one based on competition principles ("gas-alternative fuel").
In European countries, they mention three basic approaches to defining the gas price in long term contracts. The first one consists in linking the gas price to the price of a basket of alternative energy resources (coal and oil products, which are traded on the stock market and have a "market price"). The other one is based on the price for monthly futures contracts for an indicative oil type (as a rule, it is Brent). And the price level on the spot market is the third reference indicator for the formation of gas price.
In parallel with the existing system of contract relations on the European gas market, in recent years, a principally new market model has been shaping whose characteristic features are a stock market based pricing formation and complete refusal from long term contracts in favor of spot transactions. The elements of the new system have been united into the EU GasTargetModel. It is planned that this model include all EU Member Countries and those of the Energy Community, whose member is Ukraine.
It is established that the contract for the sale of natural gas in 2009-2019 between National Joint-Stock Company Naftogas Ukrainy and Open Joint-Stock Company Gazprom of 19.01.2009 is a typical "take or pay" contract of Groningen type with a linking to oil product price and similar to those used by the Russian monopolist in gas trade in long term contracts with absolute majority of European countries. For Ukraine, that contract allowed a transparent and forecastable calculation of the gas price, and, while the economic justification of the basic price of 450USD per 1000 cubic meters remains disputable, it became an effective incentive to real fuel economy in our country.
The authors justify that the losses incurred due to the conclusion of the gas contract of 19.01.2009 were caused exclusively by the market factors and are similar, in their nature and volumes, to those incurred as a result of lowering prices for and reduction of the world demand for metal items, and the further steps towards its lowering, in reality, not so improved the competitiveness of Ukraine's produce on the world markets, as recovered the previous profitability level profitability of certain activities.
Besides, the high prices for the imported natural gas led to the emergence of private suppliers, in particular, Ostchem HoldingLimited, which, in 2013, supplied almost half of natural gas from abroad. At the same time, the terms of the contracts with Ostchem HoldingLimited are incomparable, in financial and commercial way, to those with Naftogas Ukrainy, which may become a precondition for the appearance of a new private vertically integrated monopoly in place of the existing state owned company.
Keywords: natural gas transfer price formation, European gas market, Ukraine's gas market, liberalization, long-term gas contracts, spot prices
JEL: D400; D410; Q430
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 53 - 66) | Download | Downloads :786 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Petroleum&Other Liquids .US Energy Information Administration. n. d. Retrieved from www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cfm [in English].
3. Energy Sector Inquiry. n. d. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/competition/sectors/energy/inquiry [in English].
4. Export and import of certain goods by countries. The State Statistics Service of Ukraine. n. d. Retrieved from ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
5. CMU Order "On approval of the forecast balance receipt and distribution of natural gas to Ukraine for 2013 of 29 April 2013, N 327-p. n. d. Retrieved from zakon4.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/327-2013-%D1%80 [in Ukrainian].
№ 2/2017
TRYPOLSKA Galyna Serhiivna1, PODOLETS Roman 2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The biofuels market in Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 2:75-92 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.02.075 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Paper focuses on the present condition of the biofuels market in Ukraine, Ukraine's international obligations regarding energy consumption from renewables by 2020 and possibilities to achieve the set goal. Theoretically, reaching the set goal is possible, but in practice the goal of 10% renewables in the transport sector by 2020 will probably be unachievable. The structure of energy consumption in 2020 is expected to be significantly different from that presumed by the National Action Plan on Renewables until 2020, and less biofuels would be needed to achieve the goal of 10% renewables in transport sector by 2020 than it is set out by the mentioned Action Plan. While maintaining the structure of fuel consumption by road subsector of 2015, in order to provide 10% of energy from re-newables in the automotive sub-sector, about 164 thousand toe bioethanol and 256 thousand tons toe of biodiesel are needed. The abolishment of the mandatory blending of 5% of biofuels was inappropriate, as without this requirement market growth ceased. The measures to enhance biofuels market include reducing the excise duty rate for bioethanol compared with a rate of excise duty on petrol; adopting sustainability criteria of biofuels; expansion of types of biofuels; information campaigns to popularize biofuels; reducing the cost of parking for cars, marked for the use of large volumes of biofuels in municipal parking lots; permit for vehicles marked for the use of large amounts of biofuel to use the lanes for public transport; encouraging the market to sell biofuels with high content of biological components; providing financial preferences for sellers of petroleum products in order to create the infrastructure for blending of biological component of fuel.
The article was prepared within the research project on “Economic policy of the development of integrated energy markets of Ukraine”.
Keywords: biofuel, bioethanol, biodiesel, international obligations, state regulation
JEL: Q 2, Q 280, Q 420, Q 480
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 75 - 92) | Download | Downloads :999 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Plan of measures for the implementation of the Association Agreement between Ukraine, on the one part, and, on the other part, by the European Union, the European Atomic Energy Community and their Member States, for 2014-2017, approved by the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of September 17, 2014 P. No 847-p. Retrieved from zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/847-2014-p [in Ukrainian].
3. National Action Plan for Renewable Energy for the period until 2020, approved by the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of October 1, 2014, No. 902-p. Retrieved from zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/ru/902-2014-p [in Ukrainian].
4. Kudinov, I., Sirenko, A. Imports 2014: Getting rid of the remainders of the past. Retrieved from www.nefterynok.info/analytics.phtml?art_id=276 [in Russian].
5. Ukraine in figures in 2015. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Statistical Collection. Kyiv, 2016 [in Ukrainian].
6. Energy balance of Ukraine (by items). State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from: ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
7. REN21 Global Status Report 2015. Retrieved from www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/REN12-GSR2015_Onlinebook_low1.pdf
8. REN21. 2017 Renewables Global Futures Report: Great debates towards 100% renewable energy (Paris: REN21 Secretariat). Retrieved from www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/GFR-Full-Report-2017.pdf
9. The Law of Ukraine "On Alternative Liquid and Gas Fuels" No. 391-XIV of 04.01.2000. Retrieved from consultant.parus.ua/?doc=00F1U9B3C4 [in Ukrainian].
10. Law of Ukraine "On Alternative Energy Sources" No. 555-IV of February 20, 2003 Re-trieved from consultant.parus.ua/?doc=09N9E8E8CB [in Ukrainian].
11. Law of Ukraine N4970-VI "On Amendments to certain Laws of Ukraine on the Production and Use of Motor Fuels with Biocomponents" of 19.06.2012 Retrieved from zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/4970-17 [in Ukrainian].
12. Tax Code of Ukraine of 02.12.2010 No. 2755-VI. Version of April 15, 2017 Retrieved from zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2755-17 [in Ukrainian].
13. The Law of Ukraine "On Amending Certain Laws of Ukraine Concerning the Promotion of the Production and Use of Biological Fuels" of May 21, 2009, No. 1391-VI. Retrieved from zakon2.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1391-17 [in Ukrainian].
14. Ukrainian Association of Alternative Transport Fuels Producers "Ukrbiofuel". Retrieved from ukrfuel.org [in Ukrainian].
15. Austrians will build a plant for the production of bioethanol in Ukraine. Retrieved from news.finance.ua/ru/news/-/395944/avstrijtsy-postroyat-v-ukraine-zavod-po-proizvodstvu-bioetanola [in Russian].
16. Zaplaza Sugar Refinery will be re-profiled for the production of bioethanol. Retrieved from: oleg-leusenko.livejournal.com/6724685.html [in Russian].
17. Slynko, D. Biufuels: What is the danger in shifting automobiles to vegetable fuels. Retrieved from: news.finance.ua/ua/news/~/282810 [in Ukrainian].
18. Skudlarski, J., Izdebski, W., Kryś, P., Kupczyk, A., Zając, S. (2015). Problems of development of the transport biofuel sector in Poland. Bilorus Economic Journal, No 1(70) [in Russian].
19. Trypolska, G. (2011). Agro-energy market of Ukraine / NAS of Ukraine, Institute for Economics and Forecasting. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
20. Govdia, D. Production of bioethanol in Ukraine. Retrieved from: www.mayak.zp.ua/review-analysis/2019-proizvodstvo-bioetanola-v-ukraine [in Russian].
21. Urząd Regulacji Energetyki. Retrieved from: www.ure.gov.pl [in Polish].
22. Methodological provisions on the formation of the Energy Balance, approved by the Decree of the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine of 23.12.2011 No 374. Retrieved from www.lv.ukrstat.gov.ua/ukr/themes/24/metod_374.pdf [in Ukrainian].
23. Program for the development of diesel biofuel production for the period up to 2010, approved by the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 1774 of December 22, 2006. Retrieved from zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1774-2006-p [in Ukrainian].
24. Directive 2009/28 / EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources, which amends and cancels Directive 2001/77 / EC and 2003/30 / EC. Directives 2009/28 / EC Retrieved from saee.gov.ua/documents/dyrektyva_2009_28.pdf [in Ukrainian].
25. European Parliament 2014-2019. Amendments 1 – 67. Draft opinion Tiziana Beghin (PE592.301v01-00) Palm oil and deforestation of rainforest. Retrieved from: www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=COMPARL&reference=PE-595.650&format=PDF&language=EN&secondRef=01
26. Facilities for growing algae. Retrieved from biodiesel.dp.ua/ [in Russian].
27. Griniuk, I. (2009). Biofuels from algae. Agrosector, 6(36) [in Ukrainian].
28. Scientists of the University of Kremenchuk have created a technology for extracting biogas from poisonous algae. Retrieved from: fuelalternative.com.ua/ [in Russian].
29. Biofuels Digest. Retrieved from: www.biofuelsdigest.com
30. The current status of biofuels in the European Union, their environmental impacts and future prospects. Retrieved from www.easac.eu/fileadmin/PDF_s/reports_statements/Easac_12_Biofuels_Complete.pdf
31. Cabinet of Ministers Regulation No. 791-r of September 3, 2014 "On Approval of the Plan of Measures for the Implementation of the European Parliament and Council Directive 2009/28 / EC". Retrieved from zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/791-2014-p [in Ukrainian].
№ 2/2018
TRYPOLSKA Galyna Serhiivna1, DIACHUK Oleksandr Anatoliiovych2, PODOLETS Roman 3, CHEPELIEV M. 4
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
4Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Biogas projects in Ukraine: prospects, consequences and regulatory policy
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 2:111-134 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.02.111 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The paper focuses on the potential of biogas use in Ukraine. Regulatory policy options for biogas projects were considered, and economic assessment and assessment of biogas projects' environmental impact were made. The results show that the implementation of biogas projects in Ukraine leads to positive macroeconomic effects beginning in 2018-2019. In 2025-2029, additional GDP growth could reach 0.3%. Despite the fact that domestic consumers do not directly participate in investment processes, in the medium and long-run, all groups of households will have positive impact on the level of real income. Wide-scale implementation of biogas projects in Ukraine would lead to moderate structural changes, mainly causing a slowdown in coal output and use, natural gas mining, and steam and hot water supply. The greatest slowdown would be observed in case of coal whose demand is reduced due to the replacement by solid and gaseous biofuels. The use of biogas instead of burning fossil fuels would save 11.462-19.066 million tons of CO2eq.
In order for biogas projects to become available for medium-sized businesses in Ukraine, governmental internal and external loan guarantees should be introduced; lower interest rates on loans through the cooperation of Ukrainian banks with international and domestic financial institutions should be implemented. The cost of capital needs to be reduced; dissemination of information on the benefits of biogas projects, the priority connection to the grid for electricity producers from biogas, the modernization of electricity grids and infrastructure are needed. And in the long term, compulsory use of biogas should be introduced for agro-industrial companies whose activities are related to the formation of wastes.
Keywords: biogas, CO2 emissions, modelling, regulatory policy
JEL: Q 280, Q 420, Q 470, Q 480
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 111 - 134) | Download | Downloads :975 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Decree of Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated Sep. 3, 2014 No. 791-r 'On Approval of Action Plan to Implement European Parliament and Council Directive 2009/28/EU'. Retrieved from www.zakon.rada.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
3. Decree of Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated Oct. 1, 2014 No. 902-r 'On National Action Plan on Renewable Energy until 2020'. Retrieved from www.zakon.rada.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
4. State Agency on Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving of Ukraine. Retrieved from saee.gov.ua/en [in Ukrainian].
5. BAU (2013a). Prospects of biogas production and use in Ukraine - 4th Position. Paper of UABio. Retrieved from www.uabio.org [in Ukrainian].
6. BAU (2013b). Development of Biogas Technologies in Ukraine and Germany: Regulatory and Legal Framework, Status and Prospects. Retrieved from uabio.org
7. BAU (2014). Prospects of biomethane production and use in Ukraine. Retrieved from uabio.org [in Ukrainian].
8. BAU (2015). Prospects for the development of bioenergy as an instrument for natural gas replacement in Ukraine. UABio Position Paper, 12. Retrieved from www.uabio.org [in Ukrainian].
9. BAU (2016). Opportunities for harvesting by-products of grain corn for energy production in Ukraine. UABio Position Paper, 16. Retrieved from uabio.org [in Ukrainian].
10. Noorollahi, Y., Kheirrouz, M., Asl, H.F., Yousefi, H., Hajinezhad, A. (2015). Biogas production potential from livestock manure in Iran. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 50, 748-754. doi: doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.04.190
11. Moreda, Iván López. (2016). The potential of biogas production in Uruguay. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 54, 1580-1591. doi: doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.099
12. Van Rens, G.L.M.A., Bijkerk, G.W. (2013). CO2 emission saving by small-scale manure digestion. Cornelissen Consulting Services B.V. Retrieved from biogas-etc.eu
13. Findeisen, C. (2014). Biogas - trends on the German and the international market. German Biogas Association. Retrieved from www.eclareon.com
14. Chepeliev, M.H. (2015). Modeling and Assessment of economic consequences of household consumers of energy resources. Retrieved from ief.org.ua [in Ukrainian].
15. Markevych, K. Energy Industry of Ukraine: outcomes of 2016. Retrieved from www.razumkov.org.ua [in Ukrainian].
16. Shafarenko, Yu. Country's steps towards investments. Retrieved from www.uabio.org [in Ukrainian].
17. State Agency on Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving (22 August, 2017). Retrieved from www.itc.ua [in Russian].
18. Ukraine's greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2015. Annual National Inventory Report for Submission under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Retrieved from www.unfccc.int
19. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
20. In coming years cattle and pig heads in Ukraine will face a quarter decrease. Retrieved from www.milkua.info [in Ukrainian].
21. Geletukha, H.H. (15 December, 2011). Alternatives to the problematic Russian gas – are they real in Ukraine? Open Q-club meeting. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
22. Matvieiev, Yu. (12 March, 2017). Does Ukraine need to build small biogas units? Retrieved from www.agromarket.ua [in Ukrainian].
23. IRENA 2015. REmap 2030. Prospects for the development of renewable energy in Ukraine. Abu Dhabi. Retrieved from www.irena.org
24. IPCC 2006. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. IGES, Japan. Retrieved from www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp [in Russian].
25. Astals, S., Mata, J. Anaerobic Digestion Break the ice. Retrieved from www.iperasmuseprobio.unifg.it
26. IEA (2007). Biomass for Power Generation and CHP. IEA Energy Technology Essentials. Retrieved from www.iea.org
27. Child, M., Breyer, C., Bogdanov, D., Fell, H.-J. (October 2017). The role of storage technologies for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Ukraine. Energy Procedia, 135, 410-423. doi: doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.09.513
28. Annabi, N. (2004). A Sequential Dynamic CGE Model for Poverty Analysis Advanced MPIA Training Workshop in Dakar – Senegal, June 10-14, 2004. Retrieved from www.researchgate.net
29. Kinnunen, J. (2007). Dynamic version of the RegFin regional model – Practical document. Ruralia Institute. Retrieved from www.helsinki.fi
30. Population forecast for Ukraine in 2014-2061. Retrieved from www.idss.org.ua [in Ukrainian].
31. Fixed assets balance in Ukraine in 2012 (2013). State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
32. Fixed assets balance in Ukraine in 2011 (2013). State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
33. Fixed assets in Ukraine in 2000-2010 (2012). State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
34. Hosseini, H., Kaneko, S. (2012). A general equilibrium analysis of the inflationary impact of energy subsidies reform in Iran. IDEC DP Series, 2: 8. Retrieved from www.ir.lib.hiroshima-u.ac.jp
35. GDP growth (annual %). The World Bank. Retrieved from www.data.worldbank.org
36. BioEnergy Farm 2017. Retrieved from www.bioenergyfarm.eu
№ 1/2019
PODOLETS Roman 1, YUKHYMETS Roman Serhiiovych2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Alternative options of the introduction of the 'entry-exit' transport tariff model in Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2019; 1:86-108 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.01.086 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Compliance to the principles of free access to gas networks on a market basis, objectivity reflection of the system's cost, transparency and predictability of market participants requires changes to the tariff setting rules for transportation services. The introduction of the "entry-exit" tariff model is intended to ensure the achieve-ment of new market requirements and the establishment of common European rules for conducting economic activities. Changing the internal model of gas trans-portation also results in a change in the pricing principles for services provided by the TSO. Henceforth, the charge for transportation services should be taken not for the transport distance, but for the capacity of the entrance and exit points which should be sold publicly and independently. It allows for a more objective consider-ation of the operating costs of servicing the system and providing greater commer-cial variability in ordering system services by business entities.
However, European legislation does not define a single standard for the "entry-exit" model. Depending on the technical features of the network and the priorities of the national policy, each country determines the best option for itself. In this paper we used a set of mathematical models to evaluate the implications of the in-troduction of three alternative variants of the tariff model in two variants of work-load GTS (optimistic and pessimistic scenarios): full "entry-exit" model, two market zones, and "entry-exit" model with a long-term reservation. The results of the calculations were compared with the baselane scenario, which does not involve a change in the market model and gas transit is carried out in accordance with the terms of long-term contracts of 2009.
In general, changing the model for providing transport services in the gas market should lead to fundamental institutional transformations of contractual relations between all market actors and the principles of market functioning.
Keywords: natural gas market, transport operator, 'entry-exit' model, long-term transit contracts
JEL:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 86 - 108) | Download | Downloads :734 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. International Energy Outlook 2016. Retrieved from www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/nat_gas.cfm
3. Third Energy Package. Official Journal of the European Union. Retrieved from www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Europe/Third-energy-package/
4. Supply Stats. Gazprom. Retrieved from www.gazpromexport.ru/statistics/
5. International Energy Outlook 2016. Retrieved from www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/nat_gas.cfm
6. EU Reference Scenario 2016 Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends to 2050. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/ref2016_report_final-web.pdf
7. Linchevskyi M.P., Lutsyk O.E., Linchevska N.M. (2012) Analysis of the methods used in the calculation of tariffs for transit and transportation of gas in the EU and Ukraine. Naukovyi visnyk IFNTUNH - Scientific journal IFNTUNH, 2(32), 10-17 [in Ukrainian].
8. Presentation of Ukrtransgaz Code of the gas transmission system. Principles of interaction with GDS operator. Retrieved from www.google.com.ua/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwisz5y0i9vUAhXrJJoKHcEdAMEQFgglMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Futg.ua%2Fimg%2Fmenu%2Fbusinessinfo%2Fprinciples%2FDSO%2FCode-netw-DSO.pptx&usg=AFQjCNE13vIQvV2TmmCvXMVo5kfpa6XezQ
9. Typical transportation contract. Retrieved from www.nerc.gov.ua/index.php?id=18033
10. Pavlova S.I., Yukhymchuk I.O. (2010). RAB-Regulation of tariffs as a method of increasing the investment attractiveness of energy companies. Visnyk ZhDTU – Journal ZhDTU, 3(53), 278-281 [in Ukrainian].
11. Reporting of Ukrtransgaz. Retrieved from utg.ua/utg/about-company/reports.html [in Ukrainian].
12. Reporting of Naftogaz of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.naftogaz.com/www/3/nakweb.nsf/0/9B0566E71C6B0F9CC2257EDD006E558B?OpenDocument&Expand=2& [in Ukrainian].
13. National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities Regulation No. 389 dated March 24, 2016 'On Approval of the Plan for the Development of the Gas Transportation System of PJSC Ukrtransgaz for 2016-2025'. Retrieved from h8.nerc.gov.ua/?id=19543 [in Ukrainian].
14. Macroprovision of the development of the Ukrainian economy in 2018-2021. Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Retrieved from ief.org.ua/?p=6317 [in Ukrainian].
15. National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities Regulation No. 899 at 11.07.2013. Ofitsiinyi visnyk Ukrainy – Official Bulletin of Ukraine, 60, 238 [in Ukrainian].
16. Yukhymets R.S. (2017). On some peculiar features in the introduction of the 'entry-exit' tariff model on Ukrainian natural gas market. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 128-145. doi: doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.01.128 [in Ukrainian].
17. Government portal. Energy security and transit stability in the EU require transparent rules. Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/control/publish/article?art_id=247520638
18. Energy charter: Transit Protocol. Retrieved from www.energycharter.org/what-we-do/trade-and-transit/transit-protocol/
19. Artus, M.M. (2002). Formation of the mechanism of pricing in a market economy. Ternopil: Ekonomichna dumka [in Ukrainian].
20. Vitrenko, Yu.Iu. (2008). Economic justification for calculating the gas transit rate and the cost of imported gas. Dzerkalo tyzhnia – Weekly mirror, 2, 15-16 [in Ukrainian].
21. Podolets R.Z., Diachuk O.A., Chepeliev M.H. (2015). Integrated Approach to Modeling the Development of the Ukrainian Energy System. Visnyk Instytutu ekonomiky ta prohnozuvannia – Journal of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting, 50-59 [in Ukrainian].
22. Chepeliev M.H. (2015). Modeling and estimating the economic consequences of subsidizing household consumers of energy resources: theses candidate's degree in economics: 08.00.11. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
23. Chepeliev M.H. (2014). Modelling and assessment of economic effects of subsidy policy change in Ukrainian natural gas market. Ekonomika promyslovosti – Economy of the industry, 3, 25-42 [in Ukrainian].
24. Chepeliev M.H. (2014). Simulation and evaluation of the economic impact of the change of the tariff policy on Ukrainian electricity market. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 121-138 [in Ukrainian].
25. Trinh, B., Phong N.V. (2013). A Short Note on RAS Method Advances in Management & Applied Economics, 3, 133-137.
26. Chepeliev M.H., Yukhymets R.S. (2017). The assessment is, in fact, the introduction of the 'input-output' tariff system into the natural gas market of Ukraine. Zbirnyk tez dopovidei Mizhnarodnoi naukovo-praktychnoi konferentsii 'Problemy staloho rozvytku ekonomiky v umovakh posylennia hlobalizatsiinykh protsesiv' – Collection of abstracts of the International scientific and practical conference 'Problems of sustainable economic development in the conditions of strengthening of globalization processes', 9-13 [in Ukrainian].
Events calendar
M | T | W | T | F | S | S |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
29 | 30 |