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№ 2/2001
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
Conceptual foundations of Ukrainian Eurointegration strategy
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2001; 2:26-41 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Main factors of the Ukrainian Eurointegration strategy formation are analyzed proceeding from possible changes in the balance of forces on the world economic scene, and the existing country’s potential. The article’s conclusion is that the implementation of the Eurointegration development model is possible only on the basis of substantial institutional and structural reforms in Ukraine, which are to make the country able to efficiently compete in open economic environment in the sectors that determine the future of the world economy.
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 26 - 41) | Download | Downloads :634 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. The World Bank. World Development Indicators 2000, Washington, D.C, 2000, 389 r.
3. Treaty of Nice Amending the Treaty on European Union, the Treaties Establishing the European Communities and Certain Related Acts (2001 C 80 01) , Official Journal of the European Communities, 10.03.2001.– 87 r.
4. Poslannia Prezydenta Ukrainy do Verkhovnoi Rady Ukrainy pro vnutrishnie i zovnishnie stanovyshe Ukrainy u 2000 rotsi, K., Informatsiyno-vydavnychyi tsentr Derzhkomstatu Ukrainy, 2001, 404 s.
5. Eurostatistics, Data for Shortterm Economic Analysis. Monthly 1 2000, Brussels, European Communities, 2000, r. 108, 110.
6. World Investment Report 2000, New York and Geneva, United Nations, 2000, 590 p.
7. Burakovskyi I, Biletskyi V. Shliakh Ukrainy do Yevropeyskogo soiuzu, pogliad z Ukrainy, K., Tsentr myru, konversii ta zovnishnoi polityky Ukrainy, 1999, Kviten, 78 s.
8. UNDP. Human Development Report 2000, http,//www.undp.org/hdr
9. Agenda 2000. For a Stronger and Wider Union, http,//europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/agend
10. International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outloo, October 2000, Washington, D.C, 2000, 282 p.
11. The Global Competitiveness Report 2000 Michael E. Porter, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Andrew M. Warner and others, Oxford University Press in cooperation with Harvard University, 2000, 336 p.
12. The World Competitiveness Yearbook , 2000, http,//www.imd.ch/wcy/wcy.cf
13. Programa integratsii Ukrainy do Yevropeyskogo soiuzu. Zatverdzhena Ukazom Prezydenta Ukrainy 14 veresnia. № 1072 2000, 338 s.
14. Shishkov Yu. Evropa i processy globalizacii ekonomiki , Sovremennaya Evropa, 2000, № 1, S. 32–47.
№ 1/2002
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
The policy of support of the national producers in the context of Ukraine’s integration into the world economy
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2002; 1:45-54 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Keywords:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 45 - 54) | Download | Downloads :662 |
REFERENCES ▼
№ 3/2014
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
Regulation of a country's balance of payments under global instability
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 3:7-19 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article analyzes the evolution of theoretical approaches to the problem of safeguarding external balance in a country's payments, which has exacerbated under the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-09 and the ensuing chronic global instability.
The author argues that methods and instruments of policies employed to safeguard external balance of payments must not be standardized and invariable, and that relative significance of different factors shaping BoP is not similar for countries with differing levels of development, market institutions maturity and economic liberalization. External payment imbalances caused primarily by factors of structural origin require regulative solutions associated not with traditional regulation of foreign exchange rates or customs tariffs but with instruments influencing the correction of the structural parameters of the economy as well as consumer preferences inside the country.
Globalization and spreading international integration substantially modify conditions for BoP shaping and regulation, producing a considerable increase in the risks of spontaneous changes in relative prices and commercial flows, the virtualization of price-formation at specific global markets, and unexpected movements of major liquid capital stocks. To tackle this problem, it is necessary to enhance ever greater coordination of national macro-economic policies based on the principles commonly agreed at global and regional levels.
The obtained results may be used to consolidate the theoretical basis for a policy targeted at BoP regulation under the present-day conditions, especially for countries with explicit structural deformations and high dependence on external markets.
Keywords: balance of payments, BoP crises, currency crises, global financial and economic crisis, institutions of global governance, coordination of economic policies
JEL: F40, F62
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 19) | Download | Downloads :821 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Nikolaichuk, S., Shapovalenko, N. (2010). Analiz stiikosti defitsytu potochnoho rakhunku platizhnoho balansu Ukrainy. Visnyk NBU, 9, 11–20.
3. Nikolaichuk, S., Kaushan, I. (2009). Vplyv hlobalnoi finansovo-ekonomichnoi kryzy na platizhnyi balans Ukrainy ta dynamiku yoho osnovnykh pokaznykiv. Visnyk NBU, 11, 32–39.
4. Patsera, M. (2011). Rivnovaha platizhnoho balansu pid chas realizatsii modeli innovatsiino-investytsiinoho rozvytku. Visnyk NBU, 8, 34–35.
5. Shevchuk, V.O. (2001). Platizhnyi balans i makroekonomichna rivnovaha v transformatsiinykh ekonomikakh: dosvid Ukrainy. Lviv, Kameniar.
6. Chernia,k O.I., Khomiak, V.R. (2011). Kryza platizhnoho balansu: faktory, indykatory ta sposoby poperedzhennia. Economy and Forecasting, 4, 27–37.
7. Arize, Augustine C. et al. (2000). Balance of payments adjustment: macro facets of international finance revisited. Westport, Conn., Greenwood Press.
8. A?slund, Anders and Marek Dabrowski (ed.). (2008). Challenges of globalization: imbalances and growth. Washington, DC, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Center for Social and Economic Research.
9. Kumhof, Michael ; Yan, Isabel K. (2009). Balance of Payments Anti-Crises. IMF Working Paper 09/134, June 1.
10. Makin, Anthony J. (2009). Global Imbalances, Exchange Rates and Stabilization Policy. Basingstoke, Hampshire, New York, NY, Palgrave Macmillan,.
11. McCombie, J.S.L. and A.P. Thirlwall (ed.). (2004). Essays on Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, Theory and Evidence. London, New York, Routledge.
12. Polak, J. J. (2001). The Two Monetary Approaches to the Balance of Payments: Keynesian and Johnsonian. IMF Working Paper, 01/100, August 1.
13. Soukiazis, Elias and Pedro Andr? Cerqueira (ed.) (2012). Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: History, Theory and Empirical Evidence. Basingstoke, Hampshire and New York, Palgrave Macmillan.
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16. Bernanke, Ben S. (2005). The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit: Remarks made at the Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economists, Richmond, Virginia. The Federal Reserve Board, March 10, www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/200503102/.
17. Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff (2000). Perspectives on OECD Capital Market Integration: Implications for U.S. Current Account Adjustment, Global Economic Integration: Opportunities and Challenges: Proceedings of Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, 2000, August 24–26, p. 169–208, www.kc.frb.org/publications/research/escp/escp-2000.cfm.
18. Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff (2005). Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 67–146.
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23. Pauli, Louis W. (2011). The Political Economy of Global Financial Crises. John Ravenhill (ed.) Global Political Economy. New York, Oxford University Press, 244–272.
24. Wolf, Martin. (2008). Fixing Global Finance. The John Hopkins University Press, 31–39.
25. Heneralna uhoda z taryfiv i torhivli 1994 roku. Ofitsiinyi visnyk Ukrainy vid 12.11.2010, № 84, p. 303, st. 2989.
26. Sydenko, V.R. (1998). Vneshneekonomycheskaia deiatelnost: problemy systemnoi transformatsyy pry perekhode k rynku. IMEMO NAN Ukrainy, Kiev, AO «OKO», 89–91.
27. Korinek, Anton (2011). The New Economics of Capital Controls Imposed for Prudential Reasons. IMF Working Papers, WP/11/298, December, 1–37.
28. Gallagher, Kevin (2011). Regaining Control? Capital Controls and the Global Financial Crisis. University of Massachusetts, Political Economy Research Institute Working Paper Series, 250, February, www.peri.umass.edu/236/hash/143733ae92ce3b8ab9c2ab0a3ced57c4/publication/444/
29. Cordero, Jos? Antonio and Juan Antonio Montecino (2010). Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Developing Countries. Center for Economic and Policy Research, April, www.cepr.net/documents/publications/capital-controls-2010-04.pdf.
30. Sidenko, V. (2012). Modyfikatsiia svitovoi ekonomiky pid vplyvom novitnikh faktoriv hlobalnoi transformatsiinoi kryzy. Ekonomika Ukrainy, 5, 23–26.
31. Charter of the Financial Stability Board. Adopted in June 2012, www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_120809.pdf.
32. Financial Stability Board and IMF. The Financial Crisis and Information Gaps. Fourth Progress Report on the Implementation of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative, 2013, September, www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/
33. Financial Stability Board, Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2012, www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/
№ 1/2017
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
The crisis processes in the EU development: origins and prospects
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 1:7-30 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.01.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article examines the main factors that lead to crises in the development of integration in the EU and the euro area related to the asymmetry in the system of macroeconomic regulation and in the relationship between the Community and national regulations. The author proves the thesis that the crisis in the EU is predetermined by the cyclical development of regional integration processes dependent on Kondratiev long (technological) waves. He summarizes the existing theoretical approaches to the question of disintegration processes and describes possible scenarios for the further evolution of the EU and the euro area, which can be implemented in the direction of either strengthening the institutional integration or disintegration and consolidation of a differentiated (multi-level) integration model. The author concludes that the integration strategy of Ukraine should be adjusted to take into account various options and possible future evolution of the EU. To achieve success, key aspects of such strategy are to become a subject for multi-variant scientific research, which could provide ground for the future adoption of relevant political decisions.
Keywords: European Union, European integration, disintegration, the Eurozone, the Economic and Monetary Union, crisis processes, scenarios of integration (disintegration)
JEL: F02, F15, F45
Article in English (pp. 7 - 30) | Download | Downloads :905 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 30) | Download | Downloads :2672 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Sidenko, V.R. (2017). Contemporary global crisis processes and the degradation of the climate of trust in international relations. The Creation of a Space of Public Trust in Ukraine for the XXI Century: Papers of the International Scientific and Practical Conference, Lviv, February 17–19, 2016 (pp. 307-311). The Association of Ukrainian Banks, Banking University, edited by S.M. Argevitin. Kyiv: Banking University [in Ukrainian].
3. Alesina, A. and Giavazzi, F. (2006). The Future of Europe: A Reform or Decline. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
4. Taylor, Paul Graham (2008). The End of European Integration: anti-Europeanism examined. London; New York: Routledge.
5. Hayward, Jack and Wurzel, Rüdiger, eds. (2012). European Disunion: Between Sovereignty and Solidarity. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. doi: doi.org/10.1057/9781137271358
6. Offe, Claus (2015). Europe Entrapped. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press.
7. Berend, T. Iván (2017). The Contemporary Crisis of the European Union: Prospects for the Future. New York: Routledge.
8. Soros, George and Schmitz, Gregor Peter (2016, February 11). 'The European Union is on the Verge of Collapse' – An Interview. The New York Review of Books, 63 (2). Retrieved from www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/02/11/europe-verge-collapse-interview/
9. Soros, George (2014). The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Re-vival? George Soros with Gregor Peter Schmitz. New York: Public Affairs.
10. Gilman, Nils and Weber, Steven (2016). Back in the USSR. Is the European Union heading for a Soviet-style collapse? The American Interest, 12 (3). Retrieved from www.the-american-interest.com/2016/12/12/back-in-the-ussr/
11. Eppler, Annegret & Scheller, Henrik, eds. (2013). Zur Konzeptionalisierung eu-ropäischer Desintegration. Zug- und Gegenkräfte im europäischen Integrationsprozess. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft. doi: doi.org/10.5771/9783845243764 [in German].
12. Vollaard, Hans (2008). A Theory of European Disintegration. Fourth Pan-European Conference on EU Politics 25th - 27th September 2008, University of Latvia, Riga. Retrieved from www.jhubc.it/ecpr-riga/virtualpaperroom/017.pdf
13. Vollaard, Hans (2014). Explaining European Disintegration. Journal of Common Market Studies, 52 (5), 1142-1159. doi: doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12132
14. Scheller, Henrik and Annegret Eppler (2014). European Disintegration – non-existing Phenomenon or a Blind Spot of European Integration Research? Preliminary Thoughts for a Research Agenda. Institute for European Integration Research Working Paper 02/2014. Institut für europäische Integrationsforschung, Wien. Retrieved from eif.univie.ac.at/downloads/workingpapers/2014_02_Eppler_Scheller.pdf
15. Schmitter, Philippe C. and Lefkofridi, Zoe (2016). Neo-Functionalism as a theory of disintegration. Chinese Political Science Review, 1, 1-29. doi: doi.org/10.1007/s41111-016-0012-4
16. Webber, Douglas (2011). How Likely Is It That The European Union Will Disintegrate? A Critical Analysis of Competing Theoretical Perspectives. Austrian National University, ANU Centre for European Studies Briefing Paper Series, 2 (3).
17. Zielonka, Jan (2012). Disintegration Theory. International Implications of Europe's Crisis. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Winter/Spring, 51-59.
18. Libman, A.M., Heifets, B.A (2011). The models of economic disintegration. Integration and disintegration. Journal of Eurasian Economic Integration, 2 (11), 4-18 [in Russian].
19. Sidenko, V.R. (2014). The policy of completion of the formation of the European economic and currency union: main tendencies and possible consequences for Ukraine. Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 10, 51-66 [in Ukrainian and Russian].
20. Sidenko, V.R. (2011). European Integration and Economic Development. Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv, 2011 [in Russian].
21. Mundell, R.A. (1961). A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas. American Economic Review, 51 (4), 657-665.
22. Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2016). How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe. New York - London: W.W. Norton & Company.
23. Frankel, Jeffrey A. and Rose, Andrew K. (1997). The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria. The Economic Journal, 108 (449), 1009-1025. doi: doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00327
24. Scharpf, Fritz W. (2011). Monetary Union, Fiscal Crisis and the Preemption of Democracy: LEQS Annual Lecture Paper 2011. Paper presented at the LEQS Annual Lecture 'Saving the Euro – at the expense of democracy in Europe?' on 12 May 2011 at the London School of Economics. doi: doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1852316
25. Mundell, Robert A. (1962). The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Stability. IMF Staff Papers, 9 (1), 70-79. doi: doi.org/10.2307/3866082
26. Scharpf, Fritz W. (2016). Forced Structural Convergence in the Eurozone – Or a Differentiated European Monetary Community. MPIfG Discussion Paper 16/15. Köln: Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung.
27. Galbraith, James K. (2016). Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice: The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
28. The Economist (2004, February 12). Charlemagne: The return of Jaques Delors. Retrieved from www.economist.com/node/2424124
29. Rousselin, Pierre (2010, June 15). "Après les pompiers, l'UE attend les architectes": interview avec Jacques Delors. Le Figaro. Retrieved from www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2010/06/15/01002-20100615ARTFIG00681-delors-l-europe-attend-les-architectes.php [in French].
30. HM Government (2017, February). The United Kingdom's exit from and new partnership with the European Union: Presented to Parliament by the Prime Minister, 2017. Retrieved from www.gov.uk/government/publications
31. Schmitter, Ph. C. (2004). Neo-neofunctionalism. Wiener A. and Diez Th., eds. European Integration Theory. Oxford - New York: Oxford Universsity Press, 45-74.
32. Chmitter, Ph. C. (1970). A revised theory of regional integration. International Organization, 24 (4), 836-868. doi: doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300017549
33. Bartolini, S. (2005). Restructuring Europe: Centre Formation, System Building and Political Structuring between the Nation-State and the European Union. Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press. doi: doi.org/10.1093/0199286434.001.0001
34. Hooghe, Liesbet and Marks, Gary (2009). A postfunctionalist theory of European integration: From permissive consensus to constraining dissensus. British Journal of Political Science, 39 (1), 1-23. doi: doi.org/10.1017/S0007123408000409
35. Krastev, Ivan (2012). A fraying Union. Journal of Democracy, 23 (4), 23-30. doi: doi.org/10.1353/jod.2012.0064
36. Five Presidents' Report (2015): Completing Europe's Economic and Monetary Union. Report by Jean-Claude Juncker in close cooperation with Donald Tusk, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Mario Draghi and Martin Schulz. Brussels: European Commission.
37. European Council and the Council of the European Union (2016, September 16). Bratislava Declaration and Roadmap. Retrieved from www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/future-eu/bratislava-declaration-and-roadmap/
38. Bartolone, Claude et al. (2017, February 26). Un patto per l'Unione federale. Claude Bartolone, Presidente della Assemblée nationale (Francia), Laura Boldrini, Presidente della Camera dei deputati (Italia), Mars Di Bartolomeo, Presidente della Chambre des députés (Lussemburgo), Norbert Lammert, Presidente del Bundestag (Germania). La Stampa (Italia). Retrieved from www.lastampa.it/2017/02/26/cultura/opinioni/editoriali/un-patto-per-lunione-federale-NeF0aVYKZqi5wsZpIEx25N/pagina.html [in Italian].
39. ZN.UA (2016, August 22). France and Italy strive to transform the EU into a federation, but Berlin opposes – Rzeczpospolita. Dzerkalo tyzhnia – ZN.UA [in Ukrainian and Russian].
40. European Commission (2017, March 1). White Paper on the Future of Europe: Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025. Brussels, COM(2017)2025.
41. Franzius, Claudio, Mayer, Franz C., Neyer, Jürgen, eds. (2014). Grenzen der eu-ropäischen Integration. Herausforderungen für Recht und Politik. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft. doi: doi.org/10.5771/9783845248851 [in German].
42. Chalmers, D., Jachtenfuchs, M., Joerges, C., eds. (2016). The End of the Eurocrats' Dream: Adjusting to European diversity. Cambridge - New York: Cambridge University Press.
43. Ott, Andrea, De Witte, Bruno and Vos, Ellen, eds. (2017). Between Flexibility and Disintegration: the Trajectory of Differentiation in EU Law. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Pub.
44. Scharpf, Fritz W. (2013). The costs of non-disintegration: the case of the European Monetary Union. Eppler, Annegret & Scheller, Henrik eds. Zur Konzeptionalisierung europäischer Desintegration. Zug- und Gegenkräfte im europäischen Integrationsprozess, Baden-Baden. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 165-184. doi: doi.org/10.5771/9783845243764-163
№ 4/2017
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
Formation of a new political economy of innovation based development (to the release of "The Political Economy of Innovation Development: Breaking the Vicious Cycle of Economic Theory" by Yuriy Bazhal)
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 4:149-151 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Keywords:
JEL:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 149 - 151) | Download | Downloads :815 |
REFERENCES ▼
№ 1/2018
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
Global structural transformations and trends in Ukrainian economy. Part 1. Key Trends in Structural Economic Changes in the World and Ukraine (in English)
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 1:37-57 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.01.037 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article, which consists of two parts, discusses the issues of long-term structural shifts in the Ukrainian economy against the background of structural transformations in the world economy during the last quarter-century. The author reveals main structural disproportions, deformations and their causes, associated not only with institutional imperfections, but also with the lack of strategic approaches to economic development and innovative passivity. In a generalized form, the article describes the main challenges that arise for a national economy in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution unfolding in the world. In this context, the paper exposes the serious imbalances in the development policy of Ukraine regarding science, education and innovation. It formulates the main principles on which the strategically oriented development policy of the country should be built under the conditions of cardinal global economic and technological transformations.
Keywords: structure of the economy, structural changes, structural transformations, world economy, development strategy, technological development, innovations, the Fourth Industrial Revolution
JEL: F63, O11, O33, O57
Article in English (pp. 37 - 57) | Download | Downloads :784 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 37 - 57) | Download | Downloads :1148 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. IMF. Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook and data files. Accessed throughWorld Bank's Databank. World Development Indicators. Retrieved from databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators
3. UN Comtrade database through WITS platform. Accessed through World Bank's Databank. World Development Indicators. Retrieved from databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators
4. UNCTAD. UNCTADstat database. Retrieved from unctadstat.unctad.org/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx
5. World Bank's Databank. World Development Indicators. Retrieved from databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators
6. WTO. World Trade Statistical Review 2016. Retrieved from www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts_e.htm
7. WTO. World Trade Statistical Review 2017. Retrieved from www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2017_e/wts17_toc_e.htm
№ 2/2018
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
Global structural transformations and trends in Ukrainian economy Part 2. Innovative Factors of Structural Change in the Context of the Forth Industrial Revolution
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2018; 2:7-28 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.02.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The second part of this article exposes that the world economy has entered into a period of radical transformations driven by a new wave of technological innovation, which are now characterized as the Forth Industrial Revolution. These transformational processes are systemic and lead to the formation of qualitatively new structural characteristics of the global economy, which in their aggregate signify the emergence of a new technological paradigm and a new socio-economic organization of human life. These changes will have a cardinal impact on all the structures of the world economy, the modes of business organization as well as the priorities and methods of macroeconomic regulation and support to economic growth and development. The mentioned global changes will be a radical, essentially existential, challenge not only to a number of industries, but also to national economies.
Ukraine's participation in the Fourth Industrial Revolution is greatly complicated by the existing structural disproportions in the economy and its educational and scientific potential. The most dangerous disproportions in the structure of education in Ukraine are associated with a very low percentage of tertiary specialists in the field of natural sciences. Ukraine significantly lags behind the world's innovation leaders, including not only developed but also many developing countries.
The author postulates that Ukraine has faced the dilemma: either to join the leading trends of economic development under the impact of the latest technologies, or to find itself in the periphery of the world economy and the entire global civilization. The an-swer to this challenge can be found only within the framework of a strategically oriented national development policy, a change in the economic philosophy (outlook) underpinning economic behavior in Ukraine, and the spread of a "culture of long-term vision" among managers at all levels. The principles of Ukraine's long-term policy should encompass stimulation of demand for innovative products and corresponding changes in consumer preferences, diversification and changes in the structure of capital (the priority of human and intellectual capital), rendering the factor of trust the role of a key economic asset, reliance on the country's own cultural basis of development, and provision of development security.
Keywords: structure of the economy, structural changes, structural transformations, world economy, development strategy, technological development, innovations, the Fourth Industrial Revolution
JEL: F 63, O 11, O 33, O 57
Article in English (pp. 7 - 28) | Download | Downloads :875 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 28) | Download | Downloads :863 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. International Patent Classification (IPC). Retrieved from www.wipo.int/classifications/ipc/en/
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12. Ross, Alec. (2016). The Industries of the Future. New York: Simon&Schust.
13. Schwab, Klaus. (2016). The Forth Industrial Revolution. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
14. Susskind, Richard and Susskind, Daniel. (2016). The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
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20. World Economic Forum (2016b). The Future of Jobs: Employment, Skills and Work force Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Davos, January 2016. Retrieved from www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs.pdf
№ 1/2020
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
NEW INSTITUTIONAL FORMATS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL E-COMMERCE
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2020; 1:85-110 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.01.085 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article examines the growing trends of institutionalization of the globale-commerce. It reveals the multilevel and multifaceted character of this process, which extends to the policies of both national states and international organizations and regional associations, and involves both state and non-state structures.
The identified main changes in national institutional systems related to digital transformation embrace include: a clearer definition of strategic priorities and tools for stimulating investment in digital infrastructure and developing digital competences; creation of free e-commerce zones; and implementation of a sound legal frame-work for digital transactions focusing on consumer protection, personal data and intellectual property, guaranteeing cybersecurity, promoting competition and enhancing competitiveness for small, medium and micro-enterprises. At the same time, there is an increase in ”electronic protectionism” and measures to restrict the freedom of commercial operations in cyberspace.
The author argues that the global nature of cyberspace determines the centrality of global and regional international organizations in the creation of the latest institutional digital trade formats. A key role in the mechanisms of global regulation of e-commerce should be played by the World Trade Organization, which requires adjustments and innovations in its mechanisms and agreements, in particular for the implementation of regulatory standards for the innovative institutional e-business formats. At the same time, there is a process of forming a network of international organizations for digital trade regulation, with increased differentiation and specialization, on the one hand, and coordination and cooperation of their regulatory functions – on the other hand. Regional policies and regulatory institutions, as well as regional integration associations play an important role in this system. However, the institutional support for digital commerce at the regional level is characterized by a considerable level of heterogeneity, and driven by cultural traditions and differences in the levels of socio-economic development.
Prepared within the research on ”Formation of the Institutions of International Electronic Commerce in the Conditions of Emerging Information and Network Based Economy” topic of ”Research on the Institutional Architectonics of Information and Network Economics” project at the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine" (2018-2020), state registration No 0117U001686.
Keywords:international organizations, e-commerce, digital trade (commerce), digital infrastructure, trade policy, national and international trade regulation, international organizations and associations, international law
JEL: F13, F15, F55
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 85 - 110) | Download | Downloads :523 |
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2. WTO (2018). World Trade Report 2018: The future of world trade: How digital technologies are transforming global commerce. Geneva: World Trade Organization. Retrieved from www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtr18_e.htm
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№ 3/2021
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
THE GLOBAL CONTEXT OF LAND MARKET LIBERALIZATION IN UKRAINE: OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2021; 3:7-32 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2021.03.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article considers various global factors influencing rural development under the conditions of liberalization of the agricultural land market in Ukraine. The author assesses the impact of global processes and global capital on the development of national farms, income distribution, access to land resources, production processes and equitable development in this country. It is proved that globalization, leading to increased concentration of agri-food production and business and expanding the role of large transnationalized corporations, is primarily aimed at exploiting the country’s existing comparative advantages, rather than increasing them, and promotes, in many recipient countries, a model of double economy split in the technological and socio-economic dimensions into qualitatively heterogeneous sectors.
The author concludes that although global factors of agricultural production may have a relatively positive impact in macroeconomic terms, the dominance of multinational (transnational) companies, large exporting companies and financially powerful sovereign welfare funds in the market may create risks and threats of crowding out Ukrainian farmers from the market and blocking the sustainable development of rural areas. At the same time, Ukraine's agricultural sector will be transformed into a raw-material link of global food production chains dominated by large transnationalized entities, and a kind of raw-material enclave of transnationalized production will be created within the Ukrainian economy.
The article argues that in today's global economy, where cardinal transformations are taking place and uncertainty is growing, land will become an increasingly valuable asset, attractive not only to agricultural producers but also to land speculators and those who try to maintain the value of their assets under the conditions of growing global risks. Under such conditions, investment in land will not at all necessarily contribute to the development of agricultural production, because speculative capital in the face of widespread expectations of a long and significant upward trend in land prices will prevail over productive agricultural capital. In general, this might lead to a significant increase in the cost of agricultural production and food prices.
The author proves that the liberalization of the land market leads to increased risks of transfer of the control over Ukraine’s land resources to foreigners (sovereign financial funds and major international corporations), given their dramatic advantage by available financial resources for land acquisition, compared to those possessed by Ukraine’s residents.
The article substantiates a set of policy measures and national policy instruments necessary to minimize the risks associated with the introduction (in the context of globalization) of free purchase and sale of agricultural land, which comply with the regulation principles of the European Union.
Prepared within the scientific project on "Spatial justice in land use for sustainable development of rural areas", under completion in accordance with the Resolution of the Presidium of the NAS of Ukraine of 23.12.2020 No 296 (state registration No 0120U100816).
Keywords:agricultural land market, rural development, globalization, global capital, multinational (transnational) corporations, sovereign development funds, economic and social risks and threats
JEL: F23, F63, Q01, Q15
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 32) | Download | Downloads :396 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Land Transparency, Kyiv School of Economics, Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine (2021, May). White Paper: Strategy for the Development of Land Relations in Ukraine. Retrieved from kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Land-strategy.pdf [in Ukrainian].
3. Borodina O. Land reform and human rights. Dzerkalo tyzhnia. Ukraina – Mirror of the Week, April 16, 2021, Retrieved from zn.ua/ukr/macrolevel/zemelna-reforma-i-prava-ljudini.html [in Ukrainian].
4. Lomakovich, V., Unkovskaya, T., Ilchenko, V., Bogdan ,T. (2019). Land market: existing threats to Ukraine and necessary safeguards: Analytical report GROWFORD Institute, 11.26.2019. Retrieved from www.growford.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/Dopovid_RYNOK_ZEMLI_final-32.pdf; Zemel'nyj visnyk Ukrainy – Land Management Bulletin, 10, 2-9; 11, 12-21 [in Ukrainian].
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9. OECD (2021). Measuring Multinational Enterprises, Analytical Database on Individual Multinationals and Affiliates (ADIMA). Retrieved 03.06.2021 from www.oecd.org/sdd/its/measuring-multinational-enterprises.htm
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13. Lewis, W.A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supply of labour. The Manchester School, 22 (2), 139–91, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x
14. NBU. Statistics of the balance of payments of Ukraine. Retrieved 11.06.2021 from bank.gov.ua/ua/statistic/sector-external/data-sector-external#1 [in Ukrainian].
15. HB and Dragon Capital (2019, September 2). The top 10 largest agricultural exporters in the country are NV and Dragon Capital. New time. Retrieved from biz.nv.ua/markets/reyting-50040122.html
16. Deininger, Klaus and Byerlee, Derek et al. (2010). Rising Global Interest in Farmland. Can it Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits? Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-8591-3
17. Eurostat database. Agriculture, Agricultural prices and price indeces: Land prices and rents (apri_lpr). Retrieved 16.04.2021 from ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/agriculture/data/database
18. Savills World Research Global Farmland (2018). Global Farmland Index. Retrieved from pdf.euro.savills.co.uk/uk/rural---other/global-farmland-index-2018.pdf
19. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2021). Economic accounts of agriculture (production account and income account). Retrieved 16.07.2021 from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
20. SWFI (2021). Top 100 Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Rankings by Total Assets. Retrieved 31.05.2021 from www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/sovereign-wealth-fund
21. European Economic and Social Committee (2015, January 21). Land grabbing - a wake-up call for Europe and an imminent threat to family farming. Retrieved from www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2015/540369/IPOL_STU(2015)540369_EN.pdf.
22. European Parliament (2017). State of play of farmland concentration in the EU: how to facilitate the access to land for Farmers. European Parliament resolution of 27 April 2017 on the state of play of farmland concentration in the EU: how to facilitate the access to land for farmers (2016/2141(INI)). Official Journal of the European Union, 23.08.2018.
23. AGTER (2021). Large Scale Land Grabbing: The Role of Multinational Firms. Retrieved 16.04.2021 from www.agter.org/bdf/es/corpus_chemin/fiche-chemin-366.html
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№ 1/2023
1State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
War in Ukraine as a bifurcation point in global development: rhyming with the past versus creating the future
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2023; 1:7-30 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2023.01.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
In this article, prepared as part of the creative discussion on the problems raised in Sergio Mariotti's paper regarding various global economic aspects related to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the author argues that, despite the obvious tendencies towards greater global protectionism, one should not excessively expand the meaning of the term "protectionism" thus concealing the recent trends towards direct government interventionism in the functioning of international markets, which makes the very concept of "free market" increasingly conditional. Turning to the repeatability in the present of certain trends of the past (called “rhyming”), which is another important message in S. Mariotti's article, the author emphasizes the need to consider this phenomenon not as a regrettable and undesirable coincidence, but as a natural consequence of the principle of cyclicality in economic development and the wave-like nature of long-term development trends.
The article proves that one can not overcome undesirable and dangerous global trends just by calling for peace, cooperation and better global coordination based on the established principles of institutionalised world order. That purpose requires a truly global thinking in all without exception centers that shape global development policy, and true cooperation in defining the parameters of the future and in solving global problems of humanity. And this is only possible via the formation of a qualitatively new model of globalization, where economic freedom would become the freedom of free development for all.
Keywords:deglobalization, economic nationalism, global protectionism, global value chains, fragmentation, global interdependencies, K-waves, long civilizational waves, Russian-Ukrainian war
JEL: F13, F20, F52, F55, F60, N40
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 30) | Download | Downloads :128 |
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2. Dent, C.M. (2020). Brexit, Trump and trade: Back to a late 19th century future? Competition & Change, 24(3-4), 338-357. doi.org/10.1177/1024529420921481
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9. Gonçalves, Lucie and Defarges, Mathilde (2022, December). When Macron Met Biden: Simmering Tensions Over the Atlantic. Blue Star Strategies LLC. Retrieved from bluestarstrategies.com/news/insight-and-analysis/628-macron-state-visit
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