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№ 1/2014
PODOLETS Roman 1, DIACHUK Oleksandr Anatoliiovych2, YUKHYMETS Roman Serhiiovych3
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The peculiarities of price formation in the international trade in natural gas
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2014; 1:53-66 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article investigates the character and conditionality of the existing practice of price formation in the international trade in natural gas. In particular, it has been established that one of important consequences of the consecutive realization of the policy of the liberalization of natural gas markets in the European countries, became decoupling between the price and principles of gas price formation. That caused a transition from the previously predominant pricing formula in the international contracts ("netbackprice") to the one based on competition principles ("gas-alternative fuel").
In European countries, they mention three basic approaches to defining the gas price in long term contracts. The first one consists in linking the gas price to the price of a basket of alternative energy resources (coal and oil products, which are traded on the stock market and have a "market price"). The other one is based on the price for monthly futures contracts for an indicative oil type (as a rule, it is Brent). And the price level on the spot market is the third reference indicator for the formation of gas price.
In parallel with the existing system of contract relations on the European gas market, in recent years, a principally new market model has been shaping whose characteristic features are a stock market based pricing formation and complete refusal from long term contracts in favor of spot transactions. The elements of the new system have been united into the EU GasTargetModel. It is planned that this model include all EU Member Countries and those of the Energy Community, whose member is Ukraine.
It is established that the contract for the sale of natural gas in 2009-2019 between National Joint-Stock Company Naftogas Ukrainy and Open Joint-Stock Company Gazprom of 19.01.2009 is a typical "take or pay" contract of Groningen type with a linking to oil product price and similar to those used by the Russian monopolist in gas trade in long term contracts with absolute majority of European countries. For Ukraine, that contract allowed a transparent and forecastable calculation of the gas price, and, while the economic justification of the basic price of 450USD per 1000 cubic meters remains disputable, it became an effective incentive to real fuel economy in our country.
The authors justify that the losses incurred due to the conclusion of the gas contract of 19.01.2009 were caused exclusively by the market factors and are similar, in their nature and volumes, to those incurred as a result of lowering prices for and reduction of the world demand for metal items, and the further steps towards its lowering, in reality, not so improved the competitiveness of Ukraine's produce on the world markets, as recovered the previous profitability level profitability of certain activities.
Besides, the high prices for the imported natural gas led to the emergence of private suppliers, in particular, Ostchem HoldingLimited, which, in 2013, supplied almost half of natural gas from abroad. At the same time, the terms of the contracts with Ostchem HoldingLimited are incomparable, in financial and commercial way, to those with Naftogas Ukrainy, which may become a precondition for the appearance of a new private vertically integrated monopoly in place of the existing state owned company.
Keywords: natural gas transfer price formation, European gas market, Ukraine's gas market, liberalization, long-term gas contracts, spot prices
JEL: D400; D410; Q430
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 53 - 66) | Download | Downloads :803 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Petroleum&Other Liquids .US Energy Information Administration. n. d. Retrieved from www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cfm [in English].
3. Energy Sector Inquiry. n. d. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/competition/sectors/energy/inquiry [in English].
4. Export and import of certain goods by countries. The State Statistics Service of Ukraine. n. d. Retrieved from ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
5. CMU Order "On approval of the forecast balance receipt and distribution of natural gas to Ukraine for 2013 of 29 April 2013, N 327-p. n. d. Retrieved from zakon4.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/327-2013-%D1%80 [in Ukrainian].
№ 1/2017
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
On some peculiar features in the introduction of the 'entry-exit' tariff model on Ukrainian natural gas market
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 1:128-145 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.01.128 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article considers the prerequisites of transformation of the national natural gas market and describes the main motivating factors determining the direction of reforms in its sectors. The topicality of implementing the model "entry-exit" on the gas market is examined both in the context of Ukraine's international commitments, and in the context of a series of crisis phenomena that have emerged in the sector of servicing and transportation of natural gas.
The change of the market model in the sphere of gas transportation predetermines the principles of tariff formation for the services provided by the GTS operator. This determines the necessity of justification of the components in the system of tariff formation, such as: regulation of projected costs, amortization, regulatory base, regulatory phase of the standard income of transportation operator. The article analyses the experience of adjusting these components in other European countries and provides relevant recommendations for the national market. It is shown that such changes fundamentally transform the national market of natural gas.
Transition from "investment plus" to the regulation of standard income means that operator's income on inserted investments, considering the level of expected investment risks, is sufficient for providing updating and development. The change of regulatory phase allows improving the predictability and creating prerequisites for involving new investments for long-term projects. The review of the methodology determining the regulatory base allows establishing a market price for the transport operators' main assets and making fully-fledged amortization deductions. It will give an opportunity to involve additional funds for renewal of the infrastructure and, based on the new price, establish objectively determined level of profitability of the transport operator in accordance with the new rates of spending, which are correctly accounted for and covered by the tariff rate. Determination of a compulsory rate of increasing annual performance creates prerequisites for reducing the costs and final tariff for the consumers.
Analyzing the barriers to the implementation of "entry-exit" tariff model in Ukraine, author gives some recommendations for the adaption of transit agreements to the new conditions of the national market, determining trade zones, and removal of the current infrastructural and institutional restrictions, which hinder the model's implementation.
Keywords: natural gas market, transport operator, "entry-exit" model, long-term transit contracts
JEL: R4
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 128 - 145) | Download | Downloads :775 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine (2014). Resolution N 510 "On improving state policy in the sphere of regulation of natural gas transportation by main pipelines on the territory of Ukraine". Ofitsiynyy visnyk Ukrayiny – The official bulletin of Ukraine, 82, 28 [in Ukrainian].
3. Directive 2003/55/ EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 June 2003 con-cerning common rules for the internal market in natural gas and repealing Directive 98/30/EC (2003). Informatsiynyy byuleten' NKRE –Newsletter of the National Commission for energy regulation, 3, 45 [in Ukrainian].
4. Regulation (EC) No 1775/2005 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 28 Sep-tember 2005 on conditions for access to the natural gas transmission networks (2005). Retrieved from www.energy-community.org/pls/portal/docs/36280.PDF
5. DNV Kema&Cowi: Study on Entry-Exit Regimes in Gas. Part B: Entry-Exit Market Area Integration (2013). Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/201307-entry-exit-regimes-in-gas-partb.pdf
6. Zakhmann, H., Ruster, S. (2014). Improving the regulation of gas transportation system of Ukraine by implementing the rules of the Energy Community – specially designed offer. Kyiv: Institute of economic research and the political consultations [in Ukrainian].
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9. Levyts'ka, I. (2012). Energy efficiency tariff energy supply companies. Ekonomichni nauky. Seriya "Oblik i finansy" – Economic science. Series "Accounting and Finance", 9 (33), 222-232 [in Ukrainian].
10. Methodology application model RIIO. Retrieved from www.ofgem.gov.uk/network-regulation-riio-model
11. Podolets', R.Z. (2009). The gas market in the context of geopolitical balances. Viche – The chamber, 4, 8-12[in Ukrainian].
12. Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (2015). Law of Ukraine "The natural gas market". Ofitsiynyy visnyk Ukrayiny – The official bulletin of Ukraine, 37, 67 [in Ukrainian].
13. Commission regulation (EU) No 984/2013 establishing a Network Code on Capacity Allo-cation Mechanisms in Gas Transmission Systems and supplementing Regulation (EC) No 715/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council. (2013). Retrieved from eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2013:273:0005:0017:en:PDF
14. European network operators of gas transmission systems ENTSO-G Transparency Plat-form. Retrieved from www.gas-roads.eu/point
15. The National Commission, Carrying out State Regulation in Energy and Utilities (2015). Resolution N 3158 "Setting tariffs for JSC "Ukrtransgaz" for services of natural gas transporta-tion pipelines for cross-border entry points and exit points". Retrieved from www.nerc.gov.ua/?id=18635 [in Ukrainian].
№ 1/2019
PODOLETS Roman 1, YUKHYMETS Roman Serhiiovych2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Alternative options of the introduction of the 'entry-exit' transport tariff model in Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2019; 1:86-108 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.01.086 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Compliance to the principles of free access to gas networks on a market basis, objectivity reflection of the system's cost, transparency and predictability of market participants requires changes to the tariff setting rules for transportation services. The introduction of the "entry-exit" tariff model is intended to ensure the achieve-ment of new market requirements and the establishment of common European rules for conducting economic activities. Changing the internal model of gas trans-portation also results in a change in the pricing principles for services provided by the TSO. Henceforth, the charge for transportation services should be taken not for the transport distance, but for the capacity of the entrance and exit points which should be sold publicly and independently. It allows for a more objective consider-ation of the operating costs of servicing the system and providing greater commer-cial variability in ordering system services by business entities.
However, European legislation does not define a single standard for the "entry-exit" model. Depending on the technical features of the network and the priorities of the national policy, each country determines the best option for itself. In this paper we used a set of mathematical models to evaluate the implications of the in-troduction of three alternative variants of the tariff model in two variants of work-load GTS (optimistic and pessimistic scenarios): full "entry-exit" model, two market zones, and "entry-exit" model with a long-term reservation. The results of the calculations were compared with the baselane scenario, which does not involve a change in the market model and gas transit is carried out in accordance with the terms of long-term contracts of 2009.
In general, changing the model for providing transport services in the gas market should lead to fundamental institutional transformations of contractual relations between all market actors and the principles of market functioning.
Keywords: natural gas market, transport operator, 'entry-exit' model, long-term transit contracts
JEL:
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 86 - 108) | Download | Downloads :764 |
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2. International Energy Outlook 2016. Retrieved from www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/nat_gas.cfm
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20. Vitrenko, Yu.Iu. (2008). Economic justification for calculating the gas transit rate and the cost of imported gas. Dzerkalo tyzhnia – Weekly mirror, 2, 15-16 [in Ukrainian].
21. Podolets R.Z., Diachuk O.A., Chepeliev M.H. (2015). Integrated Approach to Modeling the Development of the Ukrainian Energy System. Visnyk Instytutu ekonomiky ta prohnozuvannia – Journal of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting, 50-59 [in Ukrainian].
22. Chepeliev M.H. (2015). Modeling and estimating the economic consequences of subsidizing household consumers of energy resources: theses candidate's degree in economics: 08.00.11. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
23. Chepeliev M.H. (2014). Modelling and assessment of economic effects of subsidy policy change in Ukrainian natural gas market. Ekonomika promyslovosti – Economy of the industry, 3, 25-42 [in Ukrainian].
24. Chepeliev M.H. (2014). Simulation and evaluation of the economic impact of the change of the tariff policy on Ukrainian electricity market. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 1, 121-138 [in Ukrainian].
25. Trinh, B., Phong N.V. (2013). A Short Note on RAS Method Advances in Management & Applied Economics, 3, 133-137.
26. Chepeliev M.H., Yukhymets R.S. (2017). The assessment is, in fact, the introduction of the 'input-output' tariff system into the natural gas market of Ukraine. Zbirnyk tez dopovidei Mizhnarodnoi naukovo-praktychnoi konferentsii 'Problemy staloho rozvytku ekonomiky v umovakh posylennia hlobalizatsiinykh protsesiv' – Collection of abstracts of the International scientific and practical conference 'Problems of sustainable economic development in the conditions of strengthening of globalization processes', 9-13 [in Ukrainian].
№ 3/2019
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The impact of transaction costs on the transformation of the natural gas market of Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2019; 3:60-77 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.03.060 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The desire to integrate into the European development model stipulated that Ukraine voluntarily assumed international commitments about transformation of the institutional environment according to the European model. The level of political awareness of the content of the necessary changes and how to achieve a systemic balance of reforming different sectors was often declarative in the absence of any sound estimates, including the implications for different economic actors.
However, the need to reform the energy sector was determined not only by international obligations, but also by the presence of domestic problems, which over time without the application of systemic changes would become barriers to the entire further economic development of Ukraine. The main content of the implementation of European directives in the energy sector was just intended to systematically transform market relations by changing the rules of market functioning, which was supposed to solve the main crisis problems in various areas of the energy sector.
The recent model of Ukrainian natural gas market was featured by all the shortcomings of the pre-reformed state of European markets: the tariff system did not promote rational consumer behavior, which exacerbated the pressure on the state budget; the delivery rules did not guarantee the proper quality of service; the absence of investment in the gas transportation sector made it impossible to expand fixed assets; the established transport and distribution rules became a barrier to free access to third-party networks and the development of competition in the supply segment.
The actual implementation of the Second and Third Energy Package standards in the functioning of the national market of the natural year began in 2015, with the adoption of the Law on the Natural Gas Market. Today, an urgent task remains to estimate the process of reforming the natural gas market and to efficiently solve those crisis phenomena that caused the distortion of the institutional environment of the natural gas market.
Since the accumulated problems of the previous model of the natural gas market were due to the inefficiency of the institutions, the article attempted to evaluate the effectiveness of the gas sector transformation process and analyze the impact of changes in certain market segments from the perspective of neoinstitutional theory and study the level of transaction costs.
Keywords: natural gas market, transaction costs, transformation of industrial organization, liberalization
JEL: L95, L98
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 60 - 77) | Download | Downloads :520 |
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№ 1/2021
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
THE DEBT CRISIS ON UKRAINE’S NATURAL GAS MARKET AND WAYS TO SOLVE IT
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2021; 1:32-48 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2021.01.032 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article considers the main reasons that have led to the debt crisis in the natural gas market of Ukraine due to the accumulation of debt from gas supply and gas distribution companies. The purpose of the study is to identify the main prerequisites for the formation of debt in different segments during the reform of the natural gas market through partial implementation of the requirements of European energy legislation.
Having chosen the European vector of development Ukraine is interested in meeting the requirements of European policy within the framework of its international obligations and aspirations for European integration. This necessitates adaptation of the national institutional environment to the basic requirements of the Second and Third energy packages. According to the existing international obligations, the national natural gas market is undergoing significant changes towards liberalization and development of competitive environment. However, in the segment of retail market and supply of natural gas to household consumers for a long time the necessary changes in the institutional environment did not occur or temporary decisions were made, which did not contribute to solving the sector’s crisis, but only froze the existing model of relationships between various market participants. Reluctance to implement unpopular solutions in the supply of natural gas to household consumers and attempts to shift the increase in the cost of gas supply tariffs for the needs of the household consumers to other categories of consumers led to a constant redistribution of monopolistic influence and accumulation of significant debt between market participants.
The article analyzes the causes of debt between various participants in the retail segment of the natural gas market, which makes it possible to identify the main factors of such debt. These factors include: the lack of a sufficient level of transparency in the tariff for natural gas supply and transportation services; the absence of a 100% accounting for various categories of consumers, which makes it necessary to establish consumption standards, which later become the object of significant abuse; the existing model of public service obligations, which, given the significant redistribution of natural gas, results in significant market distortions; and the imperfect approach to calculating the costs of gas distribution companies in terms of temperature coefficients in the tariff, provided that gas metering exists not in energy units, but in cubic meters. Based on the results obtained in the article, the author sets forwards various recommendations for the implementation of measures, whose main content is to eliminate the institutional prerequisites that lead to the risks of market failures, which may cause debt.
Keywords:natural gas market, household consumers, gas distribution companies, gas supply companies, arrears
JEL: L12, L95, L98
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 32 - 48) | Download | Downloads :409 |
REFERENCES ▼
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22. Resolution of Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine № 25 on January, 2021 "On amendments to some resolutions of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine". Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/npas/pro-vnesennya-zmin-do-deyakih-postanov-kabinetu-ministriv-t180121 [in Ukrainian].
23. Draft law №2553 on December, 2019 "About modification of some legislative acts of Ukraine concerning introduction in the market of natural gas of the account and calculations on volume of gas in units of energy". Retrieved from w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc4_1?pf3511=67572 [in Ukrainian].
12. Yukhymets, R. (2019). The impact of transaction costs on the transformation of the natural gas market of Ukraine. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 3, 60-77. doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.03.060 [in Ukrainian].
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