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№ 4/2011
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Investment activities of the enterprises and the ways of its provision
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2011; 4:53-63 |
ABSTRACT ▼
AND THE WAYS OF ITS PROVISION
The author generalizes the main tendencies of investment activities in Ukraine during the post-crisis period, investigates the risks and justifies the guidelines to ensure a revival of investment activities in Ukraine’s economy in the years to come.
Keywords:revival, investment activities, investment climate, economic modernization
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 53 - 63) | Download | Downloads :602 |
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14. Ramskyi A.Yu. Zaoshadzhennia naselennia yak investytsiynyi resurs ekonomiky, K., KNUTD, 2011, S. 117.
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№ 4/2012
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Ukraine’s competitive positions among the CIS countries as to the attraction of foreign direct investments
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2012; 4:102-109 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article’s objective is defining Ukraine’s prospects among the CIS countries in the attraction of foreign direct investments. The author investigates the movement of foreign direct investments in the CIS countries, analyzes the condition and dynamics of the attraction of foreign direct investments in Ukraine’s economy, defines the main factors hindering the revival of foreign investments in this country's economy, generalized Ukraine’s main rating positions and their impact on the competitiveness as to the attraction of foreign direct investments, and provides various recommendations for improving the investment climate in Ukraine.
Keywords:foreign direct investments, Ukraine’s rating positions, investment climate, competitiveness
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 102 - 109) | Download | Downloads :584 |
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2. 5–7% prognoz rosta pryamykh inostrannykh investicij v mire v 2012 godu, wocorg.com/research/index.php?name=News&op=article&sid=31.
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9. Investytsii zovnishnoekonomichnoi diialnosti, stat. zb, K., Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, 2012, S. 16–19.
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11. Investytsiyna reforma Ukrainy, www. ukrproject.gov.ua/page/іnvestitsiinareformavukraini.
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14. Opredelenie investicionnoj potrebnosti i investicionnykh resursov Kazakhstana do 2015 goda, v 5 t, Astana, 2008.
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№ 3/2015
BILOUSOVA Olena 1, YERSHOVA Galina Vitaliivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Interaction between state and private investors in the implementation of priority projects in Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2015; 3:7-20 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2015.03.007 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The aim of this article is to present a thorough and comprehensive analysis of the causes and problems of cooperation between the state and private investors in Ukraine. We examine the role of government regulation in ensuring public-private partnership. The authors developed the scheme of a new investment model that includes a balanced application of state instruments, which are secured with financial resources, and legislative strengthening the common approaches to: 1) the investors’s participation in co-financing of the investments; 2) transparency in the fulfilment of projects and distribution of results and assets; 3) financial responsibility for improper fulfillment of obligations, risk management and fair distribution of possible financial losses. This will create proper conditions for the formation of stable incentives for private investors to participate in investment projects in the framework of achieving national priorities. The authors specify the essence of long-term investment commitments arising under public-private partnership; designed accounting principles for unpredictable and deferred investment assets and liabilities of the state and private investors. The developed approach can be used to improve the accounting practice of public finance, finance of budget funded organizations, banks, companies and other participants of the investment process and, in general, to ensure the protection of investors’ interests. The authors justify various suggestions for improving public investment policy, and formulates recommendations as to the ways to increase efficiency of the interaction between public and private investors in the implementation of priority projects in Ukraine. The paper contributes to debates on the assessment of the fair value of investment assets and liabilities.
Article is written as part of the research on "Financial support for structural modernization of the real sector of Ukraine’s economy" currently conducted by the Department of Finance of the Real Sector of State Оrganization "Institute for Economics and Forecasting of Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences".
Keywords: cooperation between public and private investors, government leverage, regulation, corporate investments, investment risks, recognized, contingent, investors’ deferred investment assets and liabilities, public-private partnership, the State Bank of
JEL: G32, G38, H54, Н83
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 7 - 20) | Download | Downloads :1101 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Majorova, T.V. (2013). Investment process credit and financial leverage its revitalization in Ukraine. Kyiv: KNEU [in Ukrainian].
3. Padiyar, V., Shankar, T., Varma, A. Risk management in PPP, The Essence of Risks – A Historical Perspective. Retrieved from www.globalclearinghouse.org/Infradev/assets%5C10/documents/Padiyar%20et%20al%20-%20Risk%20Management%20in%20PPP%20(2004).pdf
4. Zapatrina, I.V. (2011). Development of state support for public-private partnership in Ukraine. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and Forecasting, 3, 9-24 [in Ukrainian].
5. Berezhnyj, Ja.V., Zhalilo, Ja.A., Pokryshka, D.S. (2013). Policy implementation of national projects: development prospects in Ukraine. Ekonomika Ukrainy – Ukraine's economy, 10 (623), 32-44 [in Ukrainian].
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10. Ustawa z dnia 27.08.2009 r. o finansach publicznych (A. 132-134). ROZPORZĄDZENIE RADY MINISTRYW z dnia 2 grudnia 2010 r. W sprawie szczegółowego sposobu i trybu finansowania inwestycji z budżetu państwa. Retrieved from www.przepisy.gofin.pl/przepisy,3,16,194,866,72466, 20150416,art-124-137-przeznaczenie-wydatkow-budzetu-panstwa.html [in Polish].
11. The development bank of the Republic of Belarus. Retrieved from brrb.by/about/ [in Russian].
12. Lunina, I.O., Bulana, O.O., Frolova, N.B. (2014). The development of public finances in the context of globalization Ukraine. Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
13. Recommendation of the Council on Effective Public Investment Across Levels of Government, The OECD Council; Directorate for Public Governance and Territorial Development, 12 March 2014. Retrieved from www.oecd.org/gov/regional-policy/recommendation-effective-public-investment-across-levels-of-government.htm
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15. Capitalisation of economy of Ukraine (2007). Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
№ 4/2017
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Innovation activity in Ukraine: main trends and problems
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2017; 4:137-148 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.04.137 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The author analyzes the state of innovation activity in Ukraine, in particular, the structure of sources for its funding. The article provides various conclusions as to the possibility of increasing the concentration of innovation sources in the process of innovation. The author indicates a range of problems suppressing the innovative activity of enterprises. Among them are: 1) lack of financial resources and the absence of effective incentives on the part of the state; 2) poor legal base; 3) low innovation potential of the industrial enterprises.
The state system of selection and financing of innovative projects has been investigated, and various recommendations developed for improving the current system of ranking of state innovation projects.
As to the innovation potential of industrial enterprises, it is argued that, among other factors, a significant negative influence, which inhibits the development of innovations in the domestic industry, is a consequence of the technically, technologically, and morally outdated production base and inadequate personnel provision. In the context of the latter, the author considers the migration of Ukrainian "intellectual potential" and its implications for this country's further economic and innovative development.
Keywords: innovative activity, state policy, innovative project, financing of innovations
JEL: H 500, O 380
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 137 - 148) | Download | Downloads :782 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Implementation of high technologies in the economy of Ukraine. (2016). State Institution "Institute of Economy and Forecasting of National Academy of Sciences of the Ukraine". Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
3. The Global Innovation Index 2017. Innovation Feeding the World. Retrieved from www.globalinnovationindex.org/
4. The Law of Ukraine "On Innovation Activity" No. 40-IV of July 4, 2002 (with amendments and supplements). Retrieved from zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/40-15 [in Ukrainian].
5. Institutional Investors. Retrieved from ip-am.com.ua/ua/isi/classification [in Ukrainian].
6. Directory No. 84/1 and No. 84/2 of tax privileges, which is a loss of budget revenues (as of 1.10.2017) State Fiscal Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from sfs.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
7. Pasko, T., Chernyavska, L. (2010). Analysis of Tax Legislation to Promote Innovative Entities. Marketynh ta menedzhment innovatsiy – Marketing and Management of Innovations, 1, 122-126 [in Ukrainian].
8. The Law of Ukraine "On Priority Areas of Innovation Activity in Ukraine" No. 3715-VI of September 8, 2011. Retrieved from zakon2.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/3715-17 [in Ukrainian].
9. Decree CMU No. 294 of March 12, 2012 "Some Issues of Defining Medium-Term Priority Areas of Innovation Activity at the National Level for 2012-2016". Retrieved from zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/294-2012-%D0%BF [in Ukrainian].
10. Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine "Some issues of definition of medium-term priority directions of innovation activity of the national level for 2017-2021 years". December 28, 2016, No 1056. Retrieved from zakon5.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1056-2016-%D0%BF [in Ukrainian].
11. Salikhova, O.B. (2012). High-tech production: from the methodology of valuation to uplift in Ukraine. National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute of economy and forecasting. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
12. List of existing innovative projects included in the state register. Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine. Retrieved from mon.gov.ua/activity/innovaczijna-diyalnist-ta-transfer-texnologij/innovaczijni-proekti/perelik-chinnix-innovaczijnix-proektiv,-shho-vklyucheni-do-derzhavnogo-reestru.html [in Ukrainian].
13. Cabinet of Ministers Decree of December 14, 2016, No. 956 "On Approval of the Regulations on the National Committee for Industrial Development and its composition". Retrieved from zakon2.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/956-2016-%D0%BF [in Ukrainian].
14. Cabinet of Ministers Resolution dated November 26, 2003, No. 1839 "On Approval of the Procedure for the Identification of Innovative Projects of Companies Strategically Important for the Economy and Security of the State, Financed by the State Budget" on a competitive basis. Retrieved from zakon0.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1839-2003-%D0%BF [in Ukrainian].
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17. The main assets of Ukraine for 2016 Stat. collection (2017). State Statistic Service of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
18. Bondarchuk, M., Belenska, Ya. (2011). Characteristics of the components of the innovative potential of economic structures in the system of "innovation - finance - production". In Modern Problems of Economics and Management: Abstracts of the International Scientific and Practical Conference, p. 197-198. Lviv: Lviv Polytechnic [in Ukrainian].
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21. "Karta Poleka" was received by almost 60 thousand citizens of Ukraine. UNIAN – UNIAN. Retrieved from www.unian.ua/society/1041882-kartupolyaka-otrimali-mayje-60-tisyach-gromadyan-ukrajini.html [in Ukrainian].
22. Malynovska, O. (2016). Foreign migration of Ukrainian citizens in the context of the abolition of the visa regime for travel to the EU. Demohrafiia ta sotsialna ekonomika – Demography and Social Economy, 3 (28), 58-69 [in Ukrainian].
23. These countries are facing the greatest skills shortages. World Economic Forum. Retrieved from www.weforum.org
№ 1/2020
HARKAVENKO Valentyna 1, YERSHOVA Galina Vitaliivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
IMPACT OF FOREIGN CAPITAL ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2020; 1:47-62 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.01.047 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article examines the impact of foreign capital on the economic processes that took place in Ukraine during 2000–2019 pp. Among foreign investors, Ukraine seeks to position itself as an investment hub, in which it is profitable to invest and develop business. In some places, the impression is that foreign investment is identified with a panacea that will enable Ukraine to reach the level of development of world leaders. At the same time, the study concluded that the efficiency and quality of FDI, portfolio investment and debt capital raises considerable doubts. For 2000 and 10 months of 2019, the total net inflow of direct, portfolio foreign investments and foreign loans to Ukraine amounted to $ 185.3 billion. USA. At the same time, such a large financial resource did not become a catalyst for structural changes in the economy and the development of high-tech production. Instead, the concentration of foreign capital in certain economic activities contributed to the consolidation of the raw material orientation of this country's economy and exacerbation of domestic economic problems against the backdrop of a large influx of speculative capital.
Much attention is paid to the geographical structure of foreign investments and debt capital, which testifies to the significant influence of offshore jurisdictions on the activities of domestic businesses and the formation of their behavior. Offshore capitalization is a defining feature of national business, which has become one of the main causes of the distortion of the model of Ukraine's economic development.
The article focuses on the need to improve public policy on attracting foreign capital in Ukraine. In particular, it is proved that the lack of proper control over the concentration of foreign capital in certain sectors causes significant imbalances, which, under the influence of other factors, exacerbate the crisis. In view of this, it is advisable at the state level to analyze the "toxic impact" of foreign capital on structural changes in the economy and its impact on the economic security of Ukraine.
The article was prepared in the framework of R&D on "Financial risks of doing business in Ukraine: non-financial corporations sector" state registration No 0118U006088.
Keywords:foreign capital, foreign direct investment, economic development, foreign loans, offshore capital
JEL: O190
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 47 - 62) | Download | Downloads :566 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Svyetlov, B., Obushna, N. (2012). The mechanism of stimulation of foreign direct investment in the conditions of modernization of the Ukrainian economy. Aktualni problemy mizhnarodnykh vidnosyn – Topical problem of international relations, 105, part II, 122-128 [in Ukrainian].
3. Lutsenko, I.S. (2013). Tax incentives for attracting foreign direct investment in Ukraine. Investytsiyi: praktyka ta informatsiya – Investment: practice and experience, 18, 9-13 [in Ukrainian].
4. Harkavenko, V.I. (2018). Monetary liberalization: expediency and timeliness. Naukovi pratsi NDFI – Scientific works of the Research Financial Institute, 2, 41-44 [in Ukrainian].
5. High-technology exports (% of manufactured exports). The World Bank. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS?end=2017&locations=UA-CN-US-OE&name_desc=true&start=1960&view=chart
6. Germany Breaks Korea’s Six-Year Streak as Most Innovative Nation (2020, January 18). Bloomberg Innovation Index. Retrieved from www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-18/germany-breaks-korea-s-six-year-streak-as-most-innovative-nation?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=msg&utm_campaign=telegram
7. Resolution of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine No. 319 of October 11, 2008 "On additional measures for the activity of banks". Retrieved from zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/v0319500-08 in Ukrainian].
8. Doing Business 2019. Training for Reform. / International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The World Bank. Retrieved from www.doingbusiness.org/content/dam/doingBusiness/media/Annual-Reports/English/DB2019-report_web-version.pdf
9. Sources of financing of innovative activity of industrial enterprises. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
10. Kozak, Yu.H. Kozak, Yu.G. (2017). International Economy: in nutrition and in economy. Kyiv: Center for Educational Literature. Retrieved from westudents.com.ua/knigi/141-mjnarodna-ekonomka-kozak-yug.html [in Ukrainian].
11. Yershova, H.V. (2012). Ukraine's competitive position among CIS countries in attracting foreign direct investment. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 4, 102-109. Retrieved from www.irbis-nbuv.gov.ua/cgi-bin/irbis_nbuv/cgiirbis_64.exe?I21DBN=LINK&P21DBN=UJRN&Z21ID=&S21REF=10&S21CNR=20&S21STN=1&S21FMT=ASP_meta&C21COM=S&2_S21P03=FILA=&2_S21STR=econprog_2012_4_12 [in Ukrainian].
12. Exports-imports of goods by countries in 2016. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
13. Virgin Islands Economy - Leading industries, GDP and wealth. Retrieved from www.orangesmile.com/destinations/virginislands-british/economics.htm [in Ukrainian].
14. GDP (current US$). All Countries and Economies. The Work Bank. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
15. Harkavenko, V.I., Shapoval, Yu.I. (2017). "Cleaning" the banking sector in Ukraine: the price for society and the state. Ukr. socìum – Ukrainian society, 1, 60.
doi.org/10.15407/socium2017.01.108 [in Ukrainian].
16. Harkavenko, V. (2011). Foreign capital in the banking sector of Ukraine: lessons learned from the past, lessons for the future. Institute for economics and forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
17. US tightens control over foreign investment. TSN. Retrieved from tsn.ua/groshi/ssha-posilyuyut-kontrol-za-inozemnimi-investitsiyami.html [in Ukrainian].
18. Kushch, O. (2020, January 20). We love foreigners. Why Ukraine went through its banking golden era under Kuchma. Retrieved from minprom.ua/news/223776.html [in Ukrainian].
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№ 3/2020
HARKAVENKO Valentyna 1, YERSHOVA Galina Vitaliivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Currency liberalization and its impact on the economy of Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2020; 3:25-40 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.03.025 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Examining the transformation of financial relations in Ukraine, in the previous article the authors analyzed the impact of foreign capital on the economic development of this country’s economy and found that its concentration in certain economic activities contributed to consolidating its raw material orientation. The authors conclude that due to the distorted model of Ukraine\'s economic development, successful practices of developed countries to attract foreign investment and reform the financial sector are ineffective in this country’s economy. Continuing the study of the transformations of financial relations in Ukraine, which are taking place under the influence of the approximation of domestic legislation to European standards, the authors could not leave aside the question of impact of the liberalization of currency legislation on the economy. Given that currency liberalization significantly affects the behavior of foreign investors, the authors conducted an in-depth analysis of legislative changes in the financial sector, and described the main results of their implementation. The positive and negative consequences of currency liberalization in Ukraine for business entities and the economy in general are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the risks associated with the liberalization of operations related to the movement of capital and the behavior of non-residents in the financial market of Ukraine. It is concluded that Ukraine’s economy with its distorted development model belongs to the financially and institutionally weak ones, hence is not presently ready to liberalize its monetary relations, which could only deepen the deformations and reduce resilience to macroeconomic imbalances.
The publication was prepared in accordance with the research \"Financial risks of doing business in Ukraine: the sector of non-financial corporations\" (№ state registration 0118U006088).
Keywords:currency liberalization, capital market, currency legislation, policy of the National Bank of Ukraine
JEL: G21
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 25 - 40) | Download | Downloads :585 |
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2. Shemet, T. (2006). Exchange rate theory and practice. Kyiv: Lybid [in Ukrainian].
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4. Quinn, D. (1997). The Correlates of Change in International Financial Regulation. American Political Science Review, 91: 3, 531-551. doi.org/10.2307/2952073
5. Gershanovich, E. (2007). Currency liberalization: pros and cons. Proceedings of Tomsk Polytechnic University, 310: 1, 228-230 [in Russian].
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20. On establishing exceptions and (or) features of the introduction of deadlines for payments for export and import of goods and amendments to certain regulations (2019, May 14). Resolution of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine № 67. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/en/legislation/Resolution_14052019_67 [in Ukrainian].
21. On approval of the list of goods and (or) sectors of the economy for which the National Bank has the right to establish exceptions and (or) features of the protection measure provided for in paragraph one of the first article 13 of the Law of Ukraine \"On Currency and Currency Transactions (2019, February 13). Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine № 76-r. Retrieved from zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/76-2019-%D1%80#Text [in Ukrainian].
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29. Garkavenko, V., Ershova, G. (2020). The impact of foreign capital on the economic development of Ukraine. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economics and forecasting, 1, 47-62. doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.01.047 [in Ukrainian].
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№ 2/2021
ZYMOVETS Vladyslav Victorovych1, YERSHOVA Galina Vitaliivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
SHORT-TERM DEBT OF THE CORPORATE SECTOR AND ITS IMPACT ON THE STABILITY OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM OF UKRAINE
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2021; 2:69-84 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2021.02.069 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article deals with the economic essence of accounts payable. It is determined that in the process of deformations in the structure of business capital, it acquires the characteristics of a surrogate source of business financing, which in turn creates risks for the stability of Ukraine’s financial system. The authors describe the main trends in the dynamics and structure of accounts payable and define its impact on the growth of debt burden of non-financial corporations in Ukraine at the aggregate level. A comparison of the volume and growth rates of accounts payable in Ukraine and the EU countries is made, which allows to confirm the hypothesis of the introduction of a distorted model of business financing in Ukraine’s corporate sector. The authors point out that one of the reasons for the abnormally high debt dependence in the NFC sector at the aggregate level is the replacement of equity with other current liabilities (including financial loans from associated physical and legal entities), which allowed to establish such a flexible capital structure, which can help rapidly withdraw assets abroad in the event of macro-financial destabilization or other threats of capital loss related to the insecurity of property rights and the prevalence of fiscal voluntarism in Ukraine.
The authors conclude that with the overload of balance sheets with short-term debts against the background of a significant reduction in equity leads to a rapid loss of financial stability. At the same time, under the influence of restrictions on activities and other concomitant barriers to doing business due to the global coronavirus pandemic, the financial depletion of the non-financial corporations sector could lead to a wave of corporate bankruptcies.
It is concluded that under the influence of narrowing business access to capital in the financial market there is a rapid increase in lending to domestic business by nonresidents, which gives grounds to conclude that in this way domestic business lends itself, using funds previously withdrawn abroad. Further development of these trends not only can be a catalyst for financial imbalances at the level of individual enterprises, but can also provoke a crisis in the foreign exchange market.
The authors substantiate that one of the ways to reduce the volume of current debt obligations is to assist the government in transforming the companies’ short-term liabilities into long-term ones. This can be done by converting the companies’ current liabilities into long-term bonds on a voluntary basis using simplified procedures for registration of their issue, and by registering current liabilities to suppliers (for goods and services) as long-term promissory notes.
The publication was prepared within the research project on “Financial risks of doing business in Ukraine: the sector of non-financial corporations” (state registration No 0118U006088).
Keywords:accounts payable, debt dependence, non-financial corporations, financial stability
JEL: G32
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 69 - 84) | Download | Downloads :299 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Bocharov, V., Leontiev, V. (2004). Corporate finance. Sankt-Petersburg [in Russian].
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№ 1/2022
HARKAVENKO Valentyna 1, YERSHOVA Galina Vitaliivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
THE INFLUENCE OF GOVERNMENT DEBT POLICY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMY
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2022; 1:107-123 | https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.01.107 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The influence of the government's debt policy on the development of Ukraine's economy is analyzed. It is determined that today almost all indicators of debt stability in Ukraine exceed the critical limit, beyond which the state loses the ability to solve debt problems on its own. Thus, during 2014–2021, the domestic public and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine increased in hryvnia equivalent by 3.9 times and as of the end of 2021 amounted to UAH 1,111.6 billion. The increase in debt was primarily due to direct public debt, which increased 4.1 times during the analyzed period.
It is concluded that the scale of government borrowing in Ukraine makes it a threat to the economy, because without a change in the current government debt policy, the risk of the government's inability to meet its obligations to repay and service the debt will increase. Emphasis is placed on rethinking the country's economic policy in the direction of limiting the country's debt dependence, improving the structure of balance of payments and foreign trade balances, a balanced approach to the liberalization of relations in the foreign economic sphere and attracting foreign investment.
A detailed analysis of trends in the issuance of domestic and external government bonds, as well as attracting debt financing from international financial organizations. The study of trends, and most importantly the structure of domestic government bonds, suggests that their growth is due to the need to finance not only the state budget deficit, but also the shortcomings and miscalculations of monetary and debt policy, as well as protectionist interests of individual businesses.
Emphasis is placed on the fact that a significant share of non-residents' funds in domestic government bonds increases the country's exchange rate and financial vulnerability and is a factor that allows non-residents to influence the foreign exchange market and, accordingly, the national currency and international reserves of Ukraine.
The publication was prepared within the research project on "Transformations in the financing of corporate business in conditions of instability" (State Registration No: 0121U112770).
Keywords:government debt policy, state budget deficit, public debt, debt sustainability, domestic government bonds, external government bonds
JEL: H63
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 107 - 123) | Download | Downloads :220 |
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