Articles by : Cherkas Natalia № 2/2013
Forecasting methods and models
CHERKAS Natalia 1
1 Lviv Academy of Commerce
Impact of exchange rate and imports on the export structure dynamics in Ukraine
Ekon. prognozuvannâ 2013; 2:128-139 | |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article examines the sources of structural changes in the export sector and industrial production in Ukraine. The composition of exports in favor of commodities has been relatively stable over the recent decade serving as a factor facilitating the growth of primary exports at the expense of manufactured exports, as suggested by the income and import elasticity of exports and production sectors. In order to assess robustness of the results, an empirical estimation is conducted with the use of alternative statistical methods, such as the two-stage least-squares (2SLS), vector autoregression (VAR), and the Kalman filter. The main finding is that devaluation of the hryvnia does not contribute to the growth of manufactured exports, which is highly dependent upon the imports of capital goods. The exports of non-traditional commodities with higher value-added have higher import sensitivity but lower real exchange rate elasticity. The author establishes an asymmetrical impact of exchange rate dynamics on the industrial production and exports in the primary and technological branches of industry
Keywords:export structure, industrial production, exchange rate, import elasticity, price elasticity
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 128 - 139) | Download | Downloads :481 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Baskaran T., Blichl F, Brick T, Theis F.J., The Heckscher–Ohlin model and the network structure of international trade, International Review of Economics and Finance, 2001, № 20, S. 135–145.
2. Saygili H., Saygili M. Structural changes in exports of an emerging economy: Case of Turkey, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2011, № 22, R. 342–360.
3. Xu B. The sophistication of exports: Is China special?, China Economic Review, 2010, № 21, r. 482–493.
4. Sato S., Fukushige M.The North Korean economy: Escape from importled growth, Journal of Asian Economics, 2011, № 22, R. 76–83.
5. Chen S., Jefferson G.H, Zhang J., Structural change, productivity growth and industrial transformation in China, China Economic Review, 2011, № 22, R. 133–150.
6. Engel Ch., Wang J., International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities, Journal of International Economics, 2011, № 83, R.37–52.
7. Patnaik I., Shah A, Sethy A, Balasubramaniam V., The exchange rate regime in Asia: From crisis to crisis, International Review of Economics and Finance, 2011, № 20, 32–43.
8. Dritsakis N., Gialetaki K., Macro-economic variables analysis in Ukraine: an empirical approach with cointegration method, American Journal of Applied Sciences, 2005, № 2(4), R. 836-842.
9. Shevchuk V.O., Platizhnyi balans, ekonomichne zrostannia i stabilizatsiyna polityka, Lviv, Kalvariia, 2008. –734 c.
10. Kindzerskyi Yu.V. Destruktyvy promyslovoi polityky v Ukraini ta mozhlyvosti yikh podolannia, Ekonomika Ukrainy, 2012, № 12, S.4–16.
11. Fedulova L.I. Tendentsii rozvytku innovatsiynoi polityky ta yii vplyv na ekonomichne zrostannia, Ekonomika i prognozuvannia, 2011, № 2, S. 63–81.
12. Leamer E., Maul H., Rodriguez S., Schott P.K., Does natural resource abundance increase Latin American income inequality?, Journal of Development Economics, 1999, Vol. 59, R. 3–42.
13. Cherkas N.I. Strukturno-sektoralna model eksportu: ob’iektyvni chynnyky ekonomichnogo zrostannia Ukrainy, Aktualni problemy ekonomiky, 2012, № 1(127) , S. 111–119.
14. Naud W., Rossouw R., Export Diversification and Specialization in South Africa, Research Paper, 2008, №2008/93, 34 p.
15. Carmignani F., Avom D., The social development effects of primary commodity export dependence, Ecological Economics, 2010, № 70, S. 317–330.
16. Kastelli I., Tekhnologichnyi rozvytok u konteksti yevropeyskoi integratsii: vypadok Gretsii, Problemy i perspektyvy upravlinnia v ekonomitsi, 2004, № 2, S. 5–24.
17. Kyselova O.M., Strukturni osoblyvosti zovnishnoekonomichnoi diialnosti Ukrainy, Ekonomika i prognozuvannia, 2012, № 4, S. 93–101.
18. Iliusha S.N., Gerasimova O.A., Otsinka dynamiky importu pry dovgostrokovomu prognozuvanni makropokaznykiv, Ekonomika i prognozuvannia, 2012, № 1, S. 65–74.
19. Gujarati D., Basic Econometrics, 3-rd edition, N.Y., McGraw–Hill, 1995, P. 746–753.
20. Kim C.J., Nelson C.R., State Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs Sampling Approaches with Applications, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2000.
№ 3/2015
Forecasting methods and models
CHERKAS Natalia 1, ATAMANCHUK Z. 2
1 Lviv Academy of Commerce
2 Lviv Institute of Economics and Tourism
Assessing macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in Ukraine
ABSTRACT ▼
The paper highlights the important problem of the impact of monetary policy on macroeconomic indicators in Ukraine and analyzes the global experience of the implementationof monetary policy to achieve stable projections of economic growth. The authors review the basic opinions of researchers studying monetary policy and its impact on the equilibrium between income and balance of payments. A comparative analysis was made for the growth rates of money supply and monetization for industrial countries and transitional economies.
The authors carry out an empirical estimation to assess the dependence of industrial production, total exports and technological exports on monetary factor and exchange rate using two-stage least squares model (2SLS) and vector autoregression with error correction (VECM). The main research findings include: devaluation of the hryvnia does not serve as a factor of exports stimulation, which largely depends on energy imports; currency devaluation restricts the exports of industrial production.
The increase in monetization level of the economy in the short-term period improves the dynamics of industrial output, but, in the long term period, the effect is opposite. Depreciation of national currency negatively impacts the technological exports. On the whole, the authors identify a restrictive impact of the expansion of monetary policy on industrial output, primary exports and technological exports.
Keywords: monetary policy, monetization of GDP, macroeconomic effects, industrial production, exchange rate
JEL: С2,Е4, F43
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 123 - 134) | Download | Downloads :685 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Clarida, R., Galı´, J., Gertler, M. (2001). Optimal monetary policy in open versus closed economies: anintegrated approach. American Economic Review, 91 (2), 248-252. doi:
doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.2.248
2. Demetriades, P. O., James, G. (2011). Finance and growth in Africa: The broken link. Economics Letters, 113 (3), 263-265. doi:
doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.08.007
3. Gries, T., Kraft, M., Meierrieks, D. (2009). Linkages between financial deepening, trade openness, and economic development: Causality evidence from sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 37 (12), 1849-1860. doi:
doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.05.008
4. Kim, S. (2001). Effects of monetary policy shocks on the trade balance in small open European countries. Economics Letters, 71, 197-203. doi:
doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(01)00364-0
5. Rousseau, P.L., Wachtel, P. (2011). What is happening to the impact of financial deepening on economic growth? Economic Inquiry, 49 (1), 276-288.
6. Dzjubljuk, O. (1995). Monetarist theory and realities of monetary policy in a transitional economy. Visnyk NBU – Bulletin of the NBU, 5, 13-16 [in Ukrainian].
7. Kolobov, Ju. (2012). Monetary parameters of Ukraine's economy development. Visnyk Natsional'noho banku Ukrayiny – Bulletin of the NBU, (4), 3-7 [in Ukrainian].
8. Petryk, O., Oksymets', V. (1997). Monetization as an indicator of economic health. Visnyk Natsional'noho banku Ukrayiny – Bulletin of the NBU, (8), 28-29 [in Ukrainian].
9. Shevchuk, V. (2012). Monetary factors inhibition of post-crisis inflation in Ukraine, 2010–2011. Socio-economic problems of the modern period Ukraine. The problems of integration of Ukraine into the international financial space, 2 (94), 7-16 [in Ukrainian].
10. De Paoli, B. (2009). Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy. Journal of International Economics, 77, 11-22. doi:
doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2008.09.007
11. Ivrendi, M., Guloglu, B. (2010). Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries. Economic Modelling, 27, 1144-1155. doi:
doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.03.005
12. McKinnon, R. I. (1993). The order of economic liberalization: Financial control in the transition to a market economy. JHU Press.
13. Melnyk, A. (2000). Legislative framework and key parameters of monetary policy]. Finansy Ukrayiny – Finance of Ukraine, (7), 34-44 [in Ukrainian].
14. International Financial Statistics. Retrieved from
elibrary-data.imf.org
15. Atamanchuk, Z.A. (2009). The monetization features in transitional economies: theoretical and empirical arguments]. Visnyk L'vivs'koyi komertsiynoyi akademiyi – Bulletin LKA, 33-44 [in Ukrainian].
16. Galı´, J., Monacelli, T. (2005). Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy. Review of Economic Studies, 72 (3), 707-734. doi:
doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00349.x
17. The official website of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from
www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
18. Cherkas, N. (2013). Impact of exchange rate and imports on the export structure dynamics in Ukraine. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and Forecasting, (2), 128-139 [in Ukrainian].
19. Basic principles of monetary policy for 2015. Approved by the decision of the National Bank of Ukraine on September 11, 2014, No. 28. Retrieved from
www.bank.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
20. Cwik, T., Muller, G.J., Wolters, M.H. (2011). Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission? Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 35, 545-564.
21. Rousseau, P.L., D'onofrio, A. (2013). Monetization, Financial Development, and Growth: Time Series Evidence from 22 Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 51, 132-153. doi:
doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.05.016